It's okay if you've been sleeping for the last few weeks of the National League's regular season. We forgive you. But it's time to wake up now. Compared to the junior circuit, the pennant races in the NL were a bore, as the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and St. Louis Cardinals clinched their respective divisions with relative ease. The New York Mets also took their second consecutive Wild Card with grace, which meant there wasn't much excitement in the NL.
All that's over, though, and with October comes one of the most exciting, competitive postseasons we have seen in a while. The Tomahawk Chop vs. the Cards. G-Men verse those Amazin' Mets. It's almost too much to handle, but we'll try. Here's a breakdown of how the playoff series should shakedown.
Braves vs. Cardinals
The Atlanta Braves have been to the National League Championship Series for the past eight years. The Cardinals haven't been in the postseason since 1996, when they dropped a three-games-to-one lead to these very same Atlanta Braves in the NLCS.
The Braves threw four-time Cy Young winner Greg Maddux in Game One. The Cardinals countered with 21-year old rookie Rick Ankiel. It should have been a blowout, right? It wasn't. St. Louis pounded Maddux and took advantage of two first-inning Braves' errors to take a 6-0 lead and held on to win, 7-5.
The two teams finished the season with the exact same record, but the Cardinals have the home field advantage in the series, on the strength of winning the regular season series with the Braves, 4-3. But that's not the only thing the Cards have in their favor.
For starters, the Cardinals can almost match the Braves' pitching staff arm for arm. While Ankiel may not have the distinguished resume of Maddux, he is a favorite in the Rookie of the Year voting, and finished the year with an 11-7 mark and a 3.50 ERA. He is more lethal at home, though, where he took the mound in Game One. In Busch Stadium, he is 2-0 in his last five starts, and hasn't given up more than two runs in his past three.
Game Two's starting pitchers provide quite an interesting match up, also, as Darryl Kile, who went 20-9 this season, will get the call to pitch against Atlanta's 21-game winner Tom Glavine. The pitching staff gets deeper for the Cardinals, as manager Tony LaRussa will have the luxury of calling upon any of three pitchers who won at least ten games this year - Alan Benes, Garrett Stephenson, or Pat Hentgen. Atlanta can hang with St. Louis' depth, though, as skipper Bobby Cox will have to decide to throw either Kevin Milwood or Andy Ashby. Neither pitcher has had a great year, but both are former All-Stars and have strong postseason records.
One glance at St. Louis' lineup, though, and you realize this isn't the same Cardinals team that jumped out to such a big lead in the NL Central this season. Mark McGwire will only be available to pinch hit, because of an injury, which means that veteran Will Clark will fill in at first base. Clark has played admirably since coming over from the Baltimore Orioles, hitting over .400 against the Braves, but he is no Big Mac.
McGwire will be missed in the middle of the lineup, but there is still no shortage of power there, as third baseman Fernando Tatis, Clark, and outfielders Ray Lankford, Jim Edmonds, and J.D. Drew belted the Cards to the fourth-most homers in the NL.
The Cards are strong defensively at the most important positions, as Fernando Vina lead all NL second basemen in fielding percentage, while shortstop Edgar Renteria and centerfielder Edmonds are also capable of making spectacular plays.
One other injury of note is Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny, Ankiel's regular backstop, who will miss the rest of the year. Carlos Hernandez will take over the duties full-time.
The Braves, when healthy, are arguably the most talented team in baseball. However, they are rarely fully healthy. The lineup boasts the amazing rookie Rafael Furcal in the leadoff spot. The dazzling shortstop is a great table-setter for a powerful lineup. Andruw Jones has had his best season at the plate, and, combined with the fact that he is the best defensive centerfielder in the game, look for him to wind up on some MVP ballots.
Behind the 1-2 hitters is a lineup that consistently has punch. Third baseman Chipper Jones' numbers are down a bit from his MVP campaign in '99, but he's still the best third baseman in the game, while Andres Galarraga has wrapped up his remarkable return from cancer with another fine season. Brian Jordan and Javy Lopez are solid hitters with occasional pop, and B.J. Surhoff is a reliable veteran.
These two teams are much closer than they appear on paper, which means that either could emerge from a tiring series and play in the NLCS.
Mets vs. Giants
The Giants are the team that ran away with a talented NL West, while the Mets are the lowly Wild Card team. So why are the Mets favored in this series? Three words - pitching, pitching, pitching. And, more specifically, veteran pitching. Mike Hampton and Rick Reed are both veterans who have pitched in the postseason, and Al Leiter has pitched three times in the World Series. On the flip side, only the Giants' Livan Hernandez has proven himself in the postseason, but we are still waiting to see what will come of Shawn Estes and Russ Ortiz's first playoff starts. The smart money usually goes with the team with veteran pitching.
The Met pitching better be top notch, however, if it is going to shut down the Giants lineup, which was in the top five in almost every offensive category. Most of that strength, however, comes from three men - Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, and Ellis Burks. Bonds and Kent, both MVP candidates, carry the load offensively, but if the Giants are going to go deep into the playoffs, or even get by the Mets, they will need contributions from players like first baseman J.T. Snow, shortstop Rich Aurilia, and centerfielder Marvin Benard.
Defensively, the Giants are strong at some positions - the infield corners and centerfield - but weak in the middle of the infield, as Kent has very limited range at second and Aurilia is average with the glove.
Conversely, the Mets are extremely talented defensively, but don't hit all that well. Todd Zeile just finished his first full season as a first baseman with mixed reviews, but the rest of the infield is strong, as second baseman Edgardo Alfonzo, shortstop Mike Bordick, and third baseman Robin Ventura complete a very competent quartet.
However, the Mets have not hit the ball for much of this year. Catcher Mike Piazza, who led the MVP voting most of the season until going into a big slump in September, and Alfonzo are the only two big offensive powers. Ventura hit only .228, but he's a veteran and could pull through in the postseason. The Mets will certainly need contributions from players like Zeile and outfielders Benny Agbayani and Jay Payton.
This series could be decided when the Mets are at bat. We know the Mets pitchers can pitch and we know the Giant batters can bat. What we don't know is what will happen when guys like Russ Ortiz are pitching to guys like Jay Payton. That's what makes this stuff so much fun.
