Allow me to introduce myself. My name is Evans, and I am your typical Boston sports fan.
Once you know one of us, you know us all. I'm no different. I reminisce daily about the 2004 World Series. I am a shameless bandwagon fan of Kevin Garnett and the new-look Celtics. I often wonder if heterosexuality is worth it in a world with Tom Brady.
And I use this column as a place to bash the New York Yankees.I spent all summer looking forward to the first column of the fall, anticipating a rare opportunity to kick the Yanks while they were down. The Bronx Bombers were down 14 games at the start of the summer, and I was going to get my chance to ridicule their $190-million flop of a season.
I should have known it was too good to be true.
As I sit down to write this column, the Yankees are two games out of first place with six left to play. They're a lock for their 13th consecutive postseason, and unlike four months ago, the prevailing sentiment in Red Sox Nation is not triumph, but paranoia.
Could the Sox choke? Could this be 1978 all over again?
These two terrifying questions bring me to my purpose for writing today: it's time for everyone to calm down. The Red Sox' first division title since 1995 is safe. For the love of Theo, stop worrying.
As of this writing, Baseball Prospectus estimates the Yankees' chances of overtaking the Red Sox and winning the East to be a bit under 10 percent. Or, taking the PECOTA-adjusted version (because honestly, who doesn't love statistical algorithms named after .249-hitting utility infielders?) instead, it's more like 6 percent.
So it's possible, but highly unlikely. And if you're that desperate to find something worth worrying about, here are a few alternatives:
1. I'd give the Yankees a 22 percent chance of replacing Joe Torre after this season. His three-year contract expires this winter, and there have been years of rumblings about getting a new manager/overrated figurehead to take all the credit for the success of the nine All-Stars on the field.
Imagine a manager who doesn't draw off-the-field distractions by being accused of racism against his own players, one who can manage a $75 million pitching staff better than the a gorilla at the Bronx Zoo, or one who doesn't turn to idiotic phrases like the "Joba Rules." Maybe he'd actually deserve his seven mil a year.
2. I'd give the Yankees a 29 percent chance of acquiring Johan Santana at the deadline next July and signing him to a nine-figure extension. They're the Yankees. They can make it happen.
3. They've got about 36 percent chance of signing Barry Bonds. It's a perfect fit - Bonds would love to be a DH, and the Yankees love steroids.
4.5.6. George Steinbrenner has a 41 percent chance of discovering a magical immortality potion and staying in office forever. Derek Jeter is about 44 percent to become president someday. And Jason Giambi is just about 50-50 to find a new career in pro wrestling.
7. Most terrifying of all is this one: there's a 100 percent chance that the Yankees aren't done with Alex Rodriguez. Because whether Brian Cashman wants to admit it or not, he knows that his job hinges on keeping the best player in baseball in the Bronx. Empty threats notwithstanding, he'll be back.
So if that doesn't make you worry, then you're just hopeless ... or a Yankees fan.
And if that's the case, you're in for a long semester.
Enjoy.
