Fellow Jumbos: For some reason, the Daily has picked me up for another semester to talk politics.
Of course, the most exciting and volatile four weeks in politics since 2004, this January, coincided with the period the Daily wasn't printing. Gotta love my luck. Still, the next few weeks should be fascinating, and I hope you stick around to enjoy it.
When I was a kid, my school library had these "Choose Your Own Adventure" books. I'm sure many of you are familiar with them. The idea behind them was that you'd read a little bit to get a sense of your situation, then be presented with a choice: To fight the dragon, turn to page 87. To run away, turn to page 65. Maybe I was just really bad at them, but I usually wound up being forced by pirates to walk the plank or getting blasted to smithereens by aliens.
As I write this, voting is going on in the crucial Florida Republican Primary. I have a hunch, but I'm not sure who's going to win. So to cover all my bases, I'm doing a "Choose Your Own Adventure." By the time you read this, the winner will be known. So just pick the path that actually happened, and marvel at my predictive skills, alright?
You're John McCain, and you just won Florida: Congratulations, John! The dominos fell exactly the right way for you. New Hampshire gave you the momentum to carry South Carolina, which has propelled you to victory in Florida. The path to the nomination is much easier for you now. You top the polls in most of the Super Tuesday states. Don't say anything dumb and you should be good. Giuliani's strategy of ignoring the early states was a bust, and his dropout is imminent. His voters, fans of tough-talking straight shooters who put national security first will naturally gravitate to you, Mr. War Hero. Mitt Romney is your only possible threat, but if his huge cash advantage couldn't swing Florida, it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Remember to send a gift basket to Fred Thompson, who split the Southern conservative evangelical vote in South Carolina with Huckabee and allowed you to slip through.
You're Mitt Romney, and you just won Florida: Congratulations, Mitt! You're still in this thing. Your strategy of lending yourself ungodly amounts of money to blanket the airwaves with ads may not be the most frugal plan, but it worked. You and John McCain are the only two viable candidates left for the nomination. He's still ahead in most states on Feb. 5, but not by much - and he can't campaign for six months in every one like he could in New Hampshire and South Carolina. This big of a battlefield (around 20 states hold primaries on Feb. 5) means that a candidate with the resources to run commercials nationally has a real advantatge. That's you, Uncle Moneybags. Spend, spend, spend! McCain's momentum has been halted, and yours has just begun. You have a 50-50 shot at the nomination.
You're Rudy Giuliani, and you just won Florida: Congratulations, Rudy! You defied the polls and managed to pull out a win, thanks to lots of early voters who mailed their ballots in before you began to tank. Leverage your momentum and play heavily in the Feb. 5 states where you have lots of support: New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, California, Illinois. You won't be coronated, but you might be able to cobble enough delegates together to get a plurality.
You're Mike Huckabee, and you just won Florida: Congratulations, Mike! Unfortunately, you have just been eaten by alligators.
Michael Sherry is a junior majoring in political science. He can be reached at Michael.Sherry@tufts.edu
