The Western Conference playoff race is a jumble right now, with the top six teams separated by only three and a half games and three teams in contention for the final postseason berth.
While the eighth seed could very well be decided tomorrow night when the Denver Nuggets visit the Golden State Warriors at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, Calif., it seems as though the Dallas Mavericks have managed to secure the seventh spot just as questions arose as to whether they'd even make the postseason at all.
When Dirk Nowitzki went down with a high ankle sprain in an 88-81 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on March 23, many people thought the Mavs' playoff hopes had been lost with their superstar.
Playing without the reigning MVP and the team's best scorer and rebounder would make most squads cringe. Nowitzki has been putting up similar numbers to last season, averaging 23.6 points and 8.7 rebounds a game, but he has seen his team slip toward the middle of the pack after winning 67 games last year.
But while the Mavericks could only muster a 2-2 record in his absence, with losses to both Denver and Golden State, Dirk managed to recover from the injury - which causes most athletes to be on the shelf for up to six weeks - in only nine days. And with its leader back in the fold, Dallas looks like it is in prime position to make the postseason and face a possible first-round matchup with in-state rival San Antonio.
After the disaster of last year's first-round loss to the eighth-seeded Warriors, what are Dallas' chances like of making a playoff run this year? If the matchup stands as is, the Mavs will surely be in for a fight with the defending champs, as the Spurs won 3-of-4 games this season between the two teams. But at the same time, Dallas is the only team to have beaten San Antonio in the postseason since 2004 - they won a seven-game series in the Western Conference semifinals in 2006.
This year's Dallas team is an entirely different crew than that team or even last year's regular season juggernauts. With the trade deadline blockbuster that sent point guard Devin Harris to the New Jersey Nets for All Star Jason Kidd, the Mavericks will be playing a new brand of ball in the playoffs. And while they have only beaten two teams with winning records since the trade for Kidd, including a 105-98 win versus the Phoenix Suns this past Sunday, the Mavericks have been playing much better as of late.
Kidd has come in and helped initiate a fast-break style of basketball. Dallas has been averaging over 102 points per game since Kidd came on board, and it seems that the Mavs are finally starting to learn how to play with their new point guard. Kidd has been in double figures in scoring in five of his team's last eight games, including a season high 27 points versus the Los Angeles Clippers in a seven-point victory last week. If he can continue to find ways to score - and that has never been the forte of his game - that will go a long way to improving Dallas' chances in the postseason.
If not, the onus will be on Nowitzki and small forward Josh Howard to carry the scoring load. Howard has been having the best season of his career, averaging 20.3 points for coach Avery Johnson's team and helping out on the glass with 7.1 rebounds a game. Where the former Wake Forest star might be most valuable, however, is on the defensive end, where his size, quickness and tenacity help him keep up with opponents' top offensive options.
On the perimeter, Dallas must count on shooting guard Jason Terry. Terry averages over 15 points a game but is very much a streak shooter. When he is hot, he has one of the best strokes from beyond the arc in the league. Often times it appears that as Terry goes, so go the Mavericks; the Jet has shot only 31 percent from beyond the arc in Dallas losses compared to 42 percent in wins, and he saw his scoring average dip by almost two points in the Mavericks' 29 setbacks. But he has been more effective of late as a starter, where he seems to be more comfortable.
Where the new-look Mavericks
might regret the trade for Kidd is on the defensive end. The 35-year-old is a nine-time All-Defensive Team selection, but he's clearly slowed down a step on that side of the ball. If Dallas has to face a team like San Antonio or the New Orleans Hornets, two franchises that boast top point guards in Tony Parker and Chris Paul, Kidd will certainly be tested.
While that might be the case, the much-maligned Dallas D is not nearly as bad as pundits make it out to be. The Mavericks are sixth in the league in points allowed, surrendering just 95.8 points a game, and are also fourth in opponents' field goal percentage. And while the loss of center DeSagana Diop in the Kidd trade might hurt the Mavs in the post, they are still sixth in the league in rebounding. Whether or not they can find someone to lock horns with the likes of Tim Duncan is another story, though Erick Dampier has been playing much better since the All-Star break.
Regardless of whom they face, the Mavericks appear to be at a strange position in their history. Two years removed from an appearance in the NBA finals and a year after boasting the best record in the league, owner Mark Cuban surely must have been expecting a better year than this. Even though it looks like his team will win 50 games once again this year, so far it has been a let down. Add to that the Kidd trade, which left many believing that Dallas was mortgaging its future, and you would think that the Mavs would be under intense pressure to make a playoff run.
This Mavericks team has dealt with plenty of adversity and will be hungry to avenge its devastating loss in the first round last season. And while the Mavs will play the role of the heavy underdogs this time, it certainly cannot go any worse than their turn as the favorite last season.
