With few games left in the regular-season and the playoff picture changing shape every day, it's an exciting time of year for the NBA. It's the stretch-run. Every coach is digging deep into the files for his best pep talk. Every player is finally thinking more about the game and less about minutes and contracts (or at least they should be).
For sports reporters, covering the stretch-run with any presupposed insight is futile. One can only sit back and watch. That's why this may be an opportune time to take a step back, and look at the NBA big picture.
Currently in New York City, news from the league office indicates a large interest in making what would be the most significant rule change since the advent of the three-point line. The NBA may scrap the illegal-defense rule.
According to the Associated Press, the proposed changes would: scrap the illegal defense rules; institute a defensive three-second rule, whereby defenders would be allowed to stay in the lane for only three seconds unless they were within arm's length of an opponent; give teams eight seconds instead of ten to bring the ball past midcourt; redefine incidental contact to cut down on touch fouls; and allow players to touch the ball while it is on the rim.
With scoring and TV ratings in decline as teams increasingly rely on isolation plays, the NBA Board of Governors discussed the proposed changes last Friday. According to Commissioner David Stern, the adjustments are intended to give the game more movement, passing, and a faster pace.
The isolation style that has frustrated league officials involves a one-on-one situation in which a majority of players remain idle on the weak side to draw defenders away from the ball in the offensive team's attempt to exploit a mismatch.
The league attributes a decrease in points over the past decade to the increasing usage of this strategy. This season, teams are averaging 94.6 points, down nearly three points per game from last season.
But the motivation for jump-starting the game through rule adjustment goes beyond strategy and statistics. The illegal defense rule has benefited star players such as Michael Jordan enormously, allowing players to exploit mismatches and create scoring opportunities. But coming out of the Michael Jordan era, the league has had difficulty finding a prototypical athlete-personality. While candidates for the heir-apparent role have included Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Grant Hill, and Allen Iverson, none have demonstrated an on-and-off court presence to match Jordan's.
Offensively, a zone could neutralize the dominance of post-up players such as Shaquille O'Neal, while placing a premium on long-range shooters. The defensive 3-second should allow slashing scorers such as Allen Iverson plenty of opportunities to penetrate to the basket. On defense, however, intimidating centers (such as the aforementioned O'Neal) will no longer be drawn away from the basket. This should send shot blocking and defensive rebounding totals sky high.
The impact of the new rules could veer the league away from the athlete-personality driven model, placing an emphasis on coaching and team dynamics. A distant result of this shift could be a slowing of salary inflation, because teams wouldn't necessarily be as dependent on having premier talent.
"I came away persuaded," deputy commissioner Russ Granik said in a press release. "You're never certain exactly what the results will be with rules changes, but it's worth taking a chance here."
Even if the rule changes do no produce the anticipated effects, there could be detrimental consequences. The innovation of the defensive three-second rule, for example, might prove difficult for officials to manage and be counter-intuitive for players to observe.
Meanwhile, all speculation belongs to the realm of possibility, hanging on the whim of the commissioner's office and approval from team owners. So sports fans might as well return their attention to late-season NBA action, watching the team's we've come to know over this 82-game season jockey to improve their final position, gearing up for the playoffs.
