Following nearly a decade of mediocrity, the New York Mets' 88-win season in 1998 signaled that the Amazin's were back. Since the Mets' revival three years ago, it has become almost as natural to see the Mets and the Atlanta Braves battling it out for the NL East title as it is to toss back a few cold ones at the ballpark on a summer afternoon.
Typically, the loser of the battle for first (the Mets for the past two years) has walked away with the Wild Card. This year should be eerily familiar. However, both teams have big question marks. For the first time in years, the Braves rotation, usually a model of stability, looks shaky to say the least. In fact, with Kevin Millwood once again struggling, and John Smoltz headed for the DL, Atlanta's Fulton County is beginning to look more and more like California's San Andreas Fault.
Likewise, the Mets have problems of their own. Kevin Appier is being paid to replace erstwhile ace Mike Hampton, who fled to the Colorado Rockies, asking for more money. While Appier did win 15 games last year, the same total as Hampton, the former's ERA was more than a run higher (4.52 to 3.14), and Appier has a history of shoulder injuries.
After stripping their team of all their talent after their World Series victory in 1997, the Florida Marlins are nearly back. The Marlins (79-82 record last year) showed their commitment to winning this off-season, bringing back free agent Charles Johnson (lost in the '97 purge) and his 30 home run, 90 RBI bat and by giving budding superstar Preston Wilson a long-term deal. Ryan Dempster (14-10, 209 Ks, 3.66 ERA) leads a young an promising starting rotation. The Marlins could be a dark horse in the NL East race. Similarly, the Montreal Expos have a lot of potential. With Vladimir Guerrero (.345, 44 HR, 123 RBI) leading the attack and with the recent acquisition of Fernando Tatis from the St. Louis Cardinals, the Expos should have a solid lineup. The young pitching staff could hold the key as Carl Pavano, Tony Armas Jr., and Javier Vazquez need to stay healthy and continue to develop in order for the Expos to be competitive.
The Philadelphia Phillies do not have quite the potential as the rest of the division. A team that has to sign Jose Mesa and Rheal Cormier to stabilize its pitching staff clearly has some serious problems. It's unfortunate that Scott Rolen (.298, 26 HR, 89 RBI), in an injury-plagued year, has to witness his team's futility.
Take it to the bank
Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Braves fans are spoiled. Krispy Kreme Donuts, Coca-cola, and great starting pitching are available in abundance in Atlanta. Though the decline of Kevin Millwood last season and the injuries to John Smoltz have left the Braves staff not as deep as it once was, Maddux and Glavine are still winning games. Maddux was 19-9 with 3.00 ERA last season, and Glavine was impressive as well, going 21-9 with a 3.40 ERA.Things we have no clue about
The Phillies offseason pitching acquisitions. Granted, Rheal Cormier is a useful situational reliever. And, granted, Jose Mesa was a dominant closer for the Indians several years ago. And Ricky Bottalico, well, he's played for the Phillies before. But by throwing a ton of money at these three journeymen, the Phillies paid through the nose to improve their horrendous bullpen by a bit. While Cormier (4.61 ERA in 64 appearances with Boston) is not without value as a lefty out of the pen, Mesa (5.36 ERA with Seattle) and Bottalico (4.83 ERA with Kansas City) had tough seasons in 2000.Rico Brogna. How do you replace Andres' Galaraga's.300 batting average, 28 home runs, and 100 RBI? A-Rod? Manny? Sadly, for Braves fans, A-Rod now resides in Texas, and Manny currently plays in Fenway. According to the Atlanta Braves, the replacement comes in the form of .278, 2 HR, and 21 RBI, otherwise known as Rico Brogna. In Brogna's defense, he has had a few solid years, most recently 1999 when he hit 24 HRs while driving in 104, but the Braves will most certainly miss Galaraga's leadership.
Young guns to be tested
A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny, Jason Grilli. If the Marlins are to put pressure on the Mets and Braves, they will need two of their young pitchers to overcome injuries and live up to their potential, as Ryan Dempster did last season. Burnett (3-7 4.79 ERA) is a 6-5 fireballer with a "spike curve" that he sometimes has trouble throwing for strikes. After a promising tryout late in the 1999 season, Burnett injured his thumb and missed half of last season. Penny also fought injuries, but managed an 8-7 record and a 4.81 ERA. Grilli has performed well this spring and will likely end up as the Marlins fifth starter. If Burnett and Penny are on, right hander Chuck Smith recovers from a spring injury, and Grilli can effectively fill in, the Marlins should improve by ten games for the third straight season.Jay Payton. The man has heart, and boy has he ever needed it. After missing a cumulative total of nearly three years, battling elbow and shoulder injuries, the Mets' Jay Payton finally managed to stay healthy in 2000, and began to show why he was a number-one pick in the 1994 draft. Payton ranked first among NL rookies in hits (142), was second in home runs (17), and proved himself an above-average defender. Payton has so much potential that the Mets were hesitant to package the sophomore slugger in a deal for LA Dodgers superstar Gary Sheffield. Look for Payton's power numbers to improve as well as his stolen base total. While he has speed to burn, the youngster is often hesitant on the base paths, with only five steals in 16 attempts.
Old legs to be retested
John Smoltz. Will John Smoltz pitch for the Braves this year? A healthy Smoltz could seal the pennant for the Braves, but the Cy Young award winner has been feeling pain in his elbow and may miss the start of the season. Smoltz went 11-8 with a 3.19 ERA in 1999, his last full season. He missed all of last season to have "Tommy John" surgery on his right elbow.Jump:NL EAST
Continue:Mets and Braves will duel it out again in the East
Edits:nt, bo
