When the National League playoffs began yesterday, they featured the usual cast of characters. The Atlanta Braves, who are making their tenth straight postseason appearance are paired against the Houston Astros, who are back in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years after missing out last season. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks returned to the October stage for the second time in the franchise's four-year history and will face the wild card St. Louis Cardinals who are in the playoffs for the second consecutive year after winning the NL Central last season.
Atlanta vs. Houston
While Atlanta (88-74) became the first professional team to win its division for ten straight years when it won the NL East title last Friday, the team has wavered between pathetic, mediocre, and dynamic this year and seems to have made the playoffs due in large part to luck. If the Braves had been in the AL West, they would have finished 28 games out of first place, and wouldn't have stood a chance in the AL wildcard, where Oakland would have bested them by 13 games.
Houston (93-69), though solid for most of the season, also squirmed for its division title. The Astros had a 5.5 game lead on Sept. 24 when they decided to take a vacation before the playoffs. Houston proceed to lose two to the Cardinals, three of four to the Chicago Cubs, and three to the San Francisco Giants, falling to second place in the division by one game. Only a 9-2 win against St. Louis in the season finale saved the Astros from handing the division to the Cardinals.
The Braves ended their seven-game postseason losing streak yesterday when they beat the Astros 7-4 in Game 1 of the series. Chipper Jones' three-run homer in the eight inning was the difference in the game, and John Smoltz pitched two innings for the save.
But while Game 1 went according to plan for Atlanta, the team's season has been anything but smooth. Almost its entire infield changed, as it released second baseman Quilvio Veras and first baseman Rico Brogna and lost shortstop Rafael Furcal to an injury. They traded volatile closer John Rocker for closer Steve Karsay, but ended up entrusting veteran starter Smoltz, back from a series arm injury, with the role. Smoltz has been superb in relief, but whether his beleaguered arm can hold up in postseason pressure remains to be seen.
The Braves have never been known for their offense, and the pitching staff that was so revered in baseball throughout the 90s has disintegrated. Potential Hall of Famer-Tom Glavine has nearly as many walks (97) as strikeouts (116), Smoltz is gone from the rotation, and Kevin Millwood missed 2.5 months with an injury and is not on the roster for the NLDS. The bright spots in the rotation have been erstwhile ace Greg Maddux and journeyman John Burkett, who leads the starters in ERA (3.04) and the team in strikeouts (187).
On paper, Houston is a better offensive team, leading Atlanta in all major categories except stolen bases. The Astros line-up of Moises Alou, Jeff Bagwell, and Craig Biggio is fierce, but Bagwell and Biggio have traditionally slumped in the postseason.
Don't expect the Astros to walk all over the Braves. Houston has its share of pitching problems, and the injury to rising star Roy Oswalt may have a huge impact on the rotation. Oswalt, who is 14-2 this season, was sidelined for much of September with a groin injury and is questionable to pitch Game 4.
Houston's rotation also lacks the experience that Atlanta's has. The Astros will rely on the young arm of Wade Miller, who at the age of 25 went 16-7 this season. Dave Mlicki, scheduled to start Game 2, did not fare well in his last two starts in the regular season. While Houston is a better team than Atlanta, the Astros enter the postseason following a sloppy finish to the regular season. But the Braves have momentum and have proved in the last weeks of September that they can turn on the heat when it matters. Look for them to make it close but for the Astros to come out on top.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
In a best of five series, starting pitching can make or break a team, and in the case of the St. Louis-Arizona series, St. Louis may be broken because of it. Any team where Randy Johnson is the ace and Curt Schilling is the number-two starter is dangerous and while the Cardinals have good pitching they cannot match the Diamondbacks' one-two punch.
Cardinals pitching is no chopped liver, however, and St. Louis beat Johnson twice this year. They were third in the league with an ERA of 3.92 and got more wins out of their starters (75) than any other NL team. Morris had a fabulous season, and Woody Williams went 7-1 after joining the team at the trading deadline. Darryl Kile adds great depth to the St. Louis rotation as the third starter. Both the Cardinals and Diamondbacks have bullpens that are less than steady, so it will be up to the starting pitchers to set the tone.
Yesterday's first game was a battle between two of the best pitchers in the NL this season, Arizona's Curt Shilling (22-6) And St. Louis' Matt Morris (22-8).
Arizona had a great season this year thanks to their dominating pitching and the offensive heroics of Luis Gonzalez, who batted .325 with 57 homers and 142 RBI.
For St. Louis, rookie Albert Pujols, who batted .329 with 37 homers this year, leads the offensive attack. Pujols has made up for the lack of production from slugger Mark McGwire, who batted .187 this year with 29 homers and is reportedly considering retirement. The Cards also have Jim Edmonds and J.D. Drew who both batted over .300 and hit over 25 home runs.
The Cardinals come into the series riding a wave of momentum. They were .500 at the All-Star break and went 50-26 afterwards to win the wild card, winning 17 of their last 22 games. Starting pitching gives Arizona the edge, but if St. Louis can break through against Arizona's 1-2 combo the Cards have more depth in the 3-4 spots in the rotation and would have a good shot at taking the series from the Diamondbacks.
