June 2004. A major terrorist attack against the Chinese government in Beijing has thrown the country into turmoil. It is uncertain whether the Chinese Communist Party under its inexperienced new leader, Hu Jintao, can maintain control. Hu quickly mobilizes the People's Liberation Army and prohibits any protest against the government.
Taiwan, eyeing the weakness of Beijing, sees a fading window of opportunity - declare independence now or slide back into the same unpalatable status quo of the last 50 years.
After Taiwan's recession - the worst in its history - bottomed out in mid-2002, the economy has grown rapidly. New arms shipments from the US have bolstered its military and a nationalistic government feels the public wants independence. Confident, and believing it has the backing of the US, Taiwan declares independence.
China immediately issues a diplomatic protest and masses troops on its Eastern coast. This is the most feared contingency the Chinese leaders ever faced - an independent Taiwan would almost certainly mean the collapse of the single-party government, plunging a country of 1.3 billion into chaos.
President Bush orders two carrier groups to the area in an attempt to stare down a Chinese invasion. China warns that interfering in the conflict would be an act of war and walks out of the Security Council.
China lacks any substantial amphibious landing capability, meaning it faces two options: either launch a missile attack against Taiwan to pound it into submission, or blockade the island with its submarines.
China decides on a blockade, following with a missile strike if Taiwan refuses to capitulate. Submarines surround the island and any ship attempting to dock is destroyed. The US responds by airlifting supplies to Taipei, further angering China.
Fearing a stalemate, China begins attacking Taiwan with missiles. The US threatens to bomb China's missile instillations if it does not cease its attack. China declares that this would prompt a nuclear strike against Taipei, gambling that the US would not respond with a nuclear attack against China.
This is bad. Fortunately, it is 2002 rather than 2004 and a war with China is still no more than a terrible dream. The issue of Taiwan remains the major stumbling bock in US-China relations - they can never truly be warm without a resolution of this explosive conflict - and one of the most intractable international conflicts.
Since 1949, when the Communist Party took control of China and the nationalist forces fled to Taiwan, the US has had a love-hate relationship with the little island. Military planners like to view it as a large stationary aircraft carrier but the State Department often prefers reunification, as this would mean better relations with the world's up-and-coming major power.
In the early '70s, Nixon traveled to China and adopted the US policy of "strategic ambiguity," or giving diplomatic recognition to China but providing Taiwan with weapons to defend itself against Beijing. This is a tricky balancing act at best: every time the US sells a ship to Taiwan, China grumbles about increasing its defense budget.
Taiwan is the one foreign policy issue that China cannot compromise on. If a small Pacific country decides to diplomatically recognize Taiwan, China blocks that country's proposals at the UN. If any country sells weapons to Taiwan, China protests vehemently.
In 1996, president Clinton granted a visa to Taiwan's leader so he could travel to his class reunion at Cornell. China responded by conducting missile exercises outside Taiwan's harbors, effectively preventing any ships from coming or going. The US promptly sent a carrier group to the strait and the conflict died down. Needless to say, this is a sensitive issue.
The US continues to sell weapons to Taiwan, but never as many as are requested. China thinks it has time on its side and is willing to wait out the conflict, provided there is eventual reunification. The Taiwanese people themselves have mixed desires. A minority favors independence. Another small group favors reunification. The largest group is yet undecided and wants to wait things out.
The worse Taiwan does economically and the better China does politically, the greater the chance for reunification. The best outcome would be a "one country, two systems" approach - a system that has so far worked well for Hong Kong - after a vote for limited reunification in Taiwan. This would allow for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
However, it is difficult to tell whether a majority of the Taiwanese people would ever favor reunification. The trends look promising: Taipei is gradually easing the restrictions on travel, investment and trade with the mainland, but this could easily be reversed. The best approach is to go slowly, one piece at a time, and avoid explosive issues such as excessive arms purchasing.
For many in Washington, it is hard to justify supporting the single-party Goliath against the democratic little David, but this is a political necessity. More importantly, the Pentagon must realize that the strategic value of an independent Taiwan is dwarfed by the need for good relations with China. This is not appeasement, this is realistic policy, especially since China currently has no desire for expansion or a revision of the existing regional structure.
Bush so far has shown a crudeness about this issue, declaring the US would "use any means necessary" to protect Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. This is precisely the wrong thing to do. With any luck, the economic and cultural relations across the strait will pave the way for closer political ties. The US should support peaceful resolution of this conflict, rather than actively work to inflame tensions. With luck and skillful policy, this can be one of the few major international conflicts not decided by war.
