Having trouble filling out your bracket? Can't decide between Xavier and Hawaii, or Oklahoma State and Kent State? Well I've got the perfect advice for you: don't listen to me.
I may know more about the teams in the tournament than your average scribe, but I am scarred by a history of bracket failure. It might be something about inner demons, poor luck, or an uncanny knack for not picking the right upset,
. but I have never won an NCAA bracket.
I pulled down over $1,500 playing fantasy football this year. I won another $50 betting on football games in Las Vegas over winter break. But you could give me a ten-point lead and a free 12-5 upset and I still couldn't win a five-dollar office pool.
What good is a penchant for losing if you can't help others, right? So I figure I'll just lay my picks for this year's tournament out there, and if you need help filling out the bracket, go with the opposite of what I do.
Let's start with the play-in game tonight between Sienna and Alcorn State. First of all, the concept is ridiculous because the poor guys from these schools that won their conference tournament don't actually get to be in the big dance. Instead, the players from Underachiever University (Missouri and Boston College are just a few) get an undeserved ride into the tournament because the selection committee is too afraid to say no.
Anyway, this game is essentially a toss up, so whatever team I take, go with the other. I'm going to take Sienna because I don't like the name Alcorn State.
As you follow me into the real bracket, keep in mind that I watched almost every game of basketball during conference tournament week. I know which teams are playing well, which are slumping, who is injured, and so on. Also keep in mind that all of this information helps me not at all when it comes to picking, so let's begin.
Personally, I like Kansas winning the tournament, so if you're in Vegas, bet on the field against the Jayhawks. If you've never been to Vegas and don't understand the terminology, it just means you're betting on anyone in the tournament except for the team I like. It's like betting on the US versus Afghanistan.
In the tricky eight versus nine game in that bracket, I like Western Kentucky upsetting Stanford. This means you should look for an upset elsewhere. Try St. John's over Wisconsin in the East.
It may be unpopular, but I like Texas holding serve and defeating Boston College in the 6-11 game. In other words, this is a good upset to look for.
Many people feel the West is the toughest bracket in the tournament. I'm going to make it the easiest. I like Arizona playing Cincinnati in the Elite Eight, with the Wildcats advancing to the semifinals.
On your bracket, mark off Gonzaga taking down Arizona in the second round, with Oklahoma advancing to the Final Four.
In the East region, I like Maryland. That means this is a good bracket to take an upset team in the Final Four. If you like Connecticut, the Huskies have a fine chance to advance. If you like Bobby Knight, this is a bracket weak enough for his Texas Tech team to pull a surprise run. The bottom line is Maryland won't make it to the Final Four. You want proof? In 1999, I picked the Terrapins to win the whole tournament. Oddly, they didn't even make it to the Final Four.
Down south, Duke is going to run away with the region. Seriously. Don't take anyone except Duke. I know I've said not to take who I like, but Duke should win this region without a problem. Alabama in the two-spot is weak, Pitt can't score enough to stay with the Blue Devils, and USC will hardly pose a challenge.
As far as first-round upsets go, I have a couple up my sleeve, which I'll divulge of so you don't look foolish in front of your peers. Whatever you do, don't go with Missouri over Miami (FL), Penn over Cal, Central Connecticut State over Pitt, or Valparaiso over Kentucky. Those are sure-fire busts, but that's who I'm filling in.
So in the end, I have Maryland playing Kansas on one side, with Duke playing Arizona on the other. Which means you should have anyone from the East but Maryland playing anyone from the Midwest but Kansas, with anyone from the West but Arizona playing Duke.
Seriously, pick Duke.
