Acting Massachusetts Governor Jane Swift dropped out of the governor's race in a tearful speech last Tuesday, citing family concerns. Tufts professors, however, say that she never had a chance to win and her decision was a graceful exit from what would have been a muddy campaign.
Swift's announcement came just hours after Mitt Romney, President of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics organizing committee, said he would challenge her in the GOP primary. Earlier that week a Boston Herald poll showed Romney, a venture capitalist who had failed to unseat Senator Edward Kennedy in 1994, leading the acting governor by 53 points among Republican voters.
Tufts professors said that Swift's unpopular policies crippled her ability to raise campaign money, which made a primary challenge unfeasible even with the benefits of incumbency. Political science professor Jeffrey Berry pointed to Swift's zealous attacks against the Mass. Turnpike Authority and virtual ignorance of the Mass. Port Authority as a few of the questionable policies that have left the acting governor without a political leg to stand on.
"Swift was unusually vulnerable for an incumbent," Berry said. "There was a sense that she was in over her head. She was very young and not seasoned enough, but most importantly she'd done a poor job as governor. Her tenure was punctured with a lot of embarrassing episodes and some of her behavior was downright puzzling."
In an interview with The New York Times, political science chair and professor James Glaser emphasized how rare it is for incumbents to drop out of a race - even if their prospects are dim.
"The Governor's office is the only thing that stands between Republicans and oblivion in this state," Glaser told the Times. Incumbents generally have wide name recognition across the state and wide access to campaign funds.
"Incumbent politicians really rarely see the writing on the wall. Incumbents usually persist, and when they lose, they blame the press, but they rarely back out," he said.
Political science professor Kent Portney, however, said that Swift's campaign fund numbers were so embarrassingly low that National Republicans were pressuring her to get out. "She was getting pressure from Republicans outside the state to withdraw so that Romney could have an easy time running," he said. "National Republicans see the [MA] governor's seat as a highly symbolic seat and they would not want to lose that seat if they could help it. They saw that Romney would have been a much more formidable candidate against the Democrats."
Not only has Swift's exit changed the Republican race, but Democratic challengers - three of whom have visited Tufts this semester - may feel costly effects in a heated race of their own.
"Any Democrat was going to beat Swift easily," Berry said. "Now they have to think about who's the strongest candidate against a Republican who's quite accomplished, well funded, and is coming off a publicity bonanza as leader of the Winter Olympics."
Portney agreed that the Democrats have a tough road ahead of them. "Clearly all the Democrats have their work cut out for them now. Not only do they have to worry about getting the nomination, but they have a much tougher opponent to face and they all recognize that."
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich and State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien are reported as current Democratic frontrunners. But Romney is shown leading all five of his Democratic challengers in polls. Tufts professors said it is too early to tell whether or not the Democrats can stage a stiff challenge to Romney in the general election.
Citing Romney's previous political failure, Berry said that Romney's history will not make for an easy Democratic victory. "Once the Democrats pick a candidate it's going to be a hard fought race," Berry said. "Kennedy won an easy victory over Romney before. It's going to be a tough race for the Democrats"
Berry said Swift has saved herself from a damaging race. "She was going to be beat badly," Berry said. "It was going to be an embarrassment. She wasn't going to raise enough money. Bowing out gracefully was the thing to do."
Some see Swift's decision as a smart move for the Republicans, who could have been hurt by a costly primary. Democratic political consultant Michael Goldman, who teaches a class in the Experimental College, told the Associated Press that Swift's announcement surprised him. "It is rare in Massachusetts politics that people are stunned. This is a genuinely stunning event," Goldman said.
Portney said Swift's withdrawal might not play well with female conservatives not eager to see their prominent politicians kicked out of office. Also, Swift's inability to juggle the demands of a campaign and her commitment to her children have not fared well with the public.
"Why was [her family] more a factor last week than two weeks ago or three weeks ago," Portney said. "Her family situation didn't change, it was the other things that changed. If Romney decided not to run, she'd still be in the race."
Swift is now saying she made a sacrifice for MA politics, telling the Today show that she felt withdrawing was the only way to keep two-party government alive in such a Democrat-heavy state.
Some say Romney may feel a backlash later from crowding Swift out of the mansion, and even the White House has wished her well. Swift aides are predicting that she may even receive sympathy from the public as she completes her term.
Berry, however, said these next few months will be challenging. "Most, people whether they're politicians or not, like to keep their jobs," he said.
The Boston Globe reported that Swift, who is 37 years old, has been reviewing job offers from the private sector, academia, and other political think tanks.
