Voter turnout key in midterm elections

The outcomes of elections across the nation will be determined by the number of voters who turn out next Tuesday, according to Tufts political science professors.

And because of the delicate balance of power in Congress and the possibility of war in Iraq, the stakes are higher at the 2002 midterm elections than in years past.

McKissick said that there is traditionally a low-turnout for midterm elections and "it's the most committed party faithful that tend to turn out."

"Since these folks tend to be from the more extreme wings of their parties, that can have important policy consequences," he said.

Younger voters are among the least likely groups to turn out. According to the Missouri Daily, only 24 percent of college-age students voted in the last midterm elections.

"Statistically, college students are the worst voters," said Professor James Glaser. "They're horrible. You'd think of them as being more politicized, but they're not."

Madelyn Medeiros, the president of YouthVote, a non-partisan organization that urges students to register and vote, is well aware of young people's widespread political apathy.

"Young adults represent a huge, largely untapped portion of the electorate," she said. "In an election year when there are quite a few close races that may determine which party will lead the Senate, a strong showing of young people at the polls could be a deciding factor."

Politicians, however, may be perfectly happy with this and do little to change low youth voter turnout, according to McKissick. "The apathy of younger voters makes their lives a lot easier, on the whole," he said.

"If folks [at Tufts] want to make their voices heard... they'd best start speaking up."

Professor Gary McKissick added that in cases where the majority of the House and the Senate can change with a few votes, "there's always the possibility that some relatively idiosyncratic factor will end up being crucial to the outcomes of those key races."

He cited the recent death of Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) as an example of one of these factors. According to The Associated Press, the Minnesota race was one of about six races whose outcome was expected to decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate next year.

In an attempt to keep a crucial Senate seat for the party, Former Democratic Vice President Walter Mondale plans to campaign in Wellstone's place

MSNBC reported this week that a dozen Senate races are nearly tied, including those in Texas, Colorado, Missouri and New Hampshire. Since the stakes are so high, the outcome of one race could mean the difference between a Republican and a Democratic majority in the Senate.

Another close race is the one for governor of Massachusetts. The Boston Globe has called the race between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Shannon O'Brien "hairsplittingly close."

However, since both candidates are running as centrists, Glaser said there will not be any dramatic difference in Massachusetts governance, regardless of who wins.

According reports by the Associated Press, both gubernatorial candidates have sought to attract elderly voters with discussions on issues such as home health care and prescription drug costs. McKissick said the parties are wooing elderly voters because they make up a disproportionate share of the voting population.

Professor Jeffrey Berry said the higher percentage of Democrats in Massachusetts gave O'Brien a slight lead. But he also said that Republicans claim their candidate will prevail because their party members are usually more educated, and therefore more likely to vote.

Of the other gubernatorial races, Berry said Florida's is the most intriguing _ incumbent Republican Jeb Bush was expected to have a "cake walk" reelection, but he is only slightly ahead of his Democratic opponent. "If the Democrats win, that would be interpreted as a repudiation of both him and his brother [President George Bush]," he said.

A democratic victory in the Florida gubernatorial race could also be interpreted as the public's response to the problems experienced there during the 2000 presidential elections.