BCS picture beginning to take shape

It's finally that time of year in college football when fans really get to see what teams are ballin' and what teams are fallin'. Northern Illinois effectively ended its improbable run to the Bowl Championship Series by losing to conference rival Bowling Green, 34-18. Fellow previously unbeaten Virginia Tech showed many weaknesses against a mediocre West Virginia team. Nevertheless, the Hokies went down big 28-7 against the Mountaineers, who only seem to play well against good teams.

So we are left with three undefeated teams in Division I-A college football, the Oklahoma Sooners, Miami Hurricanes, and TCU Horned Frogs. Since the Horned Frogs play a weak Conference USA schedule, they pretty much have no shot at the BCS. But Oklahoma and Miami control their own fates. However, this may not be a good thing.

Oklahoma must deal with in-state opponent Oklahoma State this week. Should it win out the rest of its games, it will still have to play the Big 12 Championship game. On the other side of the ball, Miami still has tough in-conference games against Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech in order to compete for the National Championship.

It's going to be hard for both of those teams to remain undefeated this year. College football has proven it's not about whom you lose to; it's about when you lose. Late season losses can kill any hopes of a National Championship because teams that lost earlier in the season have had time to rebuild their resumes. Classic examples of such teams are Florida State and USC.

After losing "Mud Bowl 2003" to Miami 22-14, it appeared that the Seminoles National Championship hopes were shot. However, this is not necessarily true. While experts are predicting Miami must lose two games for Florida State to get into the Sugar Bowl, it is also possible that the rule of when you lose could paying high dividends to the Seminoles.

Florida State will be favored in its remaining games against Notre Dame, Clemson, North Carolina State, and Florida, thus creating the script for an upset. However, if the Seminoles play their game they are the best team in the country. Florida State has a tremendous running back in Greg Jones, an above average and very athletic quarterback in Chris Rix, a touchdown scoring machine at wide receiver in Craphonso Thorpe, and a predatory defense led by linebacker Michael Boulware.

On the other side of the country, at USC, the Trojans have quietly put together another solid season behind former New England Patriots coach Pete Carroll. Barring a stunning overtime loss against a below average California Golden Bears team, USC is still undefeated and possibly favored to get into the National Championship game. Still, due to an overrated Pac-10 conference, the Trojans could still get a crack at the BCS National Championship game.

The one loss that the Trojans and the Seminoles each have blemishes their respective National Championship resumes. The Seminoles lost to a bona fide National Championship contender in Miami, but USC lost to a team that is even struggling to make a bowl.

Currently Florida State and USC are ranked three and four respectively in the BCS, making a BCS bowl all but set, barring a major upset, but the National Championship is what both teams want.

Luckily, neither Florida State nor USC have to play in a conference championship game, which could possibly cost each team another loss. What is bad news for them is that Miami doesn't have to play in one either.

Now all the Seminoles and Trojans can do is keep winning, hope for the teams they have already beaten to win, and pray.