AL West shouldn't be counted out

With opening day approaching, some fans are already looking towards October and a possible Red Sox-Yankees showdown. There is a good reason to do so, as both teams are stacked and certainly must be considered the favorites to win the pennant.

But don't forget about the American League West, a division that has consistently produced 100 game winners and should continue to be strong in 2004. The two teams that should compete for the top spot in the division are the Oakland A's and the Anaheim Angels.

The Angels improved themselves just as much as the Yankees or Red Sox this off-season and perhaps more so. They went out and signed the best player on the market, outfielder Vladimir Guerrero and also bolstered their starting pitching staff -- a staff that needed a lot of bolstering.

In addition to adding Guerrero, Anaheim also signed outfielder Jose Guillen to an affordable contract. Guillen had an excellent 2003 season (.311 Avg. 31 HR), partially attributable to playing a lot of games in Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark -- which has similar dimensions to Fletcher Field. The final cog in a very strong Anaheim outfield is Garret Anderson, who consistently puts up very strong numbers.

The infield is where Anaheim is weakest. With the addition of Guillen they have decided to put Darin Erstad at first base. This is a puzzling decision to say the least. Erstad has incredible range in the outfield, but he hasn't even been a decent hitter since 2000. Erstad's OPS in 2001 was .691, it was .702 in 2002, and finally it dipped to .642 in 2003. That's all you need to know.

The rest of the infield is a little better. Adam Kennedy is a pretty good second baseman, and Troy Glaus can mash at third if he's healthy, which is a big if. As much as everyone loves little David Eckstein, he's not very good. In fact, he was absolutely awful last year (.651 OPS) and this position is a big problem for Anaheim. Can you say, Nomar?

Anaheim did a lot to upgrade its starting pitching, but the staff is still far from dominant. Bartolo Colon was a solid addition, and it helps give the staff consistency. But Colon has never really been outstanding other than his 2002 season. Other than 2002, his best ERA was 3.71 in 1998.

Another addition was free agent Kelvim Escobar. He is more of a risk. Escobar is still young at 27, but he's never really had a successful full season as a starter. Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz are nothing special. At best both pitchers are a little bit above average. Anaheim will need John Lackey to turn it around and exhibit the form he showed in the 2002 World Series if they are to be successful.

The heart of the Angels, as it always has been in the last few years, is its bullpen. When Troy Percival is healthy he is dominant. Fransisco Rodriguez is nasty as well, as evidenced by his stellar 2002 playoff performance and his 3.03 ERA in his first full season in '03. Setup man Brendan Donnelly is also a fantastic reliever -- his 1.58 ERA last year is enough to prove that.

The outfield and the bullpen are the clear strengths of this team, but if they are to emerge as division champions or wild card contenders, they are going to need their starting pitchers to carry them there.

Now let's turn to the Oakland A's. The A's are the anti-Angels: they have a dominant rotation, a somewhat shaky bullpen, a crappy outfield, and a decent infield.

Everyone knows about the top three in the Oakland rotation: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. If all three stay healthy, the A's will be tough to beat. They brought in Mark Redman to join their rotation in the off-season. Redman's a pretty consistent pitcher, but it's not clear he's an upgrade over Ted Lilly, who had higher upside. They will count on 22 year-old Rich Harden to fill out the rotation.

Harden may very well be the key to the A's season. He dominated the minor leagues and has tremendous potential, but he's still very young. He struggled with his command towards the end of the 2003 season and finished with a 4.46 ERA. If Harden can control his pitches he and the A's should do very well in '04, if not, it may be the Angels' year.

The A's bullpen is a question mark heading into the season because of the loss of closer Keith Foulke. Relievers Chad Bradford and Ricardo Rincon are pretty solid, so newly-brought in Arhur Rhodes will have to step up and fill Foulke's role if Oakland is to succeed.

Third baseman Eric Chavez anchors the A's infield. Although he can't hit lefties worth a darn, he still mashes righties and plays a phenomenal third base. With the loss of shortstop Miguel Tejada, the A's badly need rookie Bobby Crosby to step up. Crosby hit well in the minors, and he will need to step up for Oakland to succeed. The mediocre Scott Hatteberg will platoon with Eric Karros at first. Now that Mark Ellis injured his shoulder, the A's have a gap they need to fill at second base.

Finally, the A's outfield is abysmal. The Oakland secret defensive statistics seem to show Mark Kotsay is a very good defender so they'll go with him in center. The secret statistics probably show Jermaine Dye stinks, but he's overpaid so they'll go with him in right. Who knows what the statistics say about Bobby Kielty, but he's a decent hitter so he'll play left.

What about the Seattle Mariners you ask? Well, they're old, older than last year, when they were, well... already old. And the Texas Rangers? Well, they're not old, but they suck, so don't count on them winning anything in the next three years.