It's almost draft time

Alright fans, I've given my soliloquy on the A-Rod/ Alfonso Soriano deal, I've done my best to entice you to sign up for a league, so now let's get down to it. It's draft time.

This week I'll be covering outfielders exclusively because this is the position with historically the most surprises. Outfielders, with the exception of Rodriquez and Soriano, will have the biggest numbers in fantasy. A major decision of yours, as a fantasy team owner, will be to what degree you will be willing to sacrifice raw numbers in your outfield for comparative advantages in your infield come draft time (my philosophy on drafting your infield to come next week). But for now, let's focus on them grass-picking outfielders.

Those who top the list are no secret. Albert Pujols was the best-ranking fantasy player last year, and is on pace to be one of the greatest batters of all-time. Barry Bonds has shown no signs of slowing down, and will be a fantasy God this year like always (especially if you count OBP in your league). Manny Ramirez, despite being a club-house shmuck and nearly impossible to trade in real life, will no doubt be bank for your fantasy totals again this season. But beyond those choices, your outfielder picks will become a matter of style.

Now, there are a lot of guys out there who can go yard, especially in this war-torn expansion era of baseball where pitchers who would have never gotten a shot fifteen years ago are getting called up every week. But in fantasy, there are three factors that make a decent power hitter a fantasy superstar: batting average (or on-base percentage, choose your pick), stolen bases, and line-up.

Batting average is self-explanatory -- it is what separates Rafael Palmeiro (2003 Stats: 561 ABs, 38 HRs, 112 RBIs, 2 SBs, .260 AVG.; ESPN pre-season draft ranking: 103) from Manny Ramirez (569, 37, 104 , 2, .325; 9) -- and the better the average, the better the fantasy player. The best thing about average is that it is fairly predictable (ignore Bill Mueller). Look at three-year trends of players' batting and it's easy to see in what direction they might be headed.

The same goes for stolen bases, only to a greater extent. There are fewer guys who can combine a lot of steals with dominance in another offensive category, making base stealers disproportionately valuable in fantasy.

Carlos Beltran, as absurd as it is, should be a consistent first-round pick since he adds 41 stolen bases to his 102 runs, 26 HRs, 100, .307, while Chipper Jones, a real-life repeat All-Star, is pre-ranked 65 with last year's performance of 103, 27, 106, .305, and 2 SBs. And how did Carl Crawford sneak his way into last year's fantasy top 50? Well, despite his extreme mediocrity at the plate, he swiped 55 bases. At the same time, Bobby Abreu has just enough at each category (99, 20, 100, .300, 22) to make him a perennial top fantasy outfielder.

But it will be the padded line-ups this year that will cause the biggest drops and climbs in player rankings, as many marquee players switched teams or had their clubs pick up added protection. Being in a good line-up means increased runs and RBI opportunities, as well being pitched around less.

The biggest outfielder to switch teams was Vlad Guerrero, fantasy's top player in 2002, who joins a studded Angels cast of David Eckstein, Garret Anderson, Troy Glaus, and Jose Guillen. I was appalled to see that Yahoo! pre-ranked Vlad at #38, so for those of you reading this, please take advantage of your league members who have judged him based upon last year's injury-shortened season.

On the same note, the addition of Guerrero makes Anderson's power even more potent. As it is, Anderson is underrated across the board. Also, recognize that Jay Gibbons used to be the only bat in Baltimore, but now he will be hitting behind three added superstars.

Behind Guerrero, I almost hate to say it, but you have to give the nod to Gary Sheffield, who brings his power to the ridiculous Yankee line-up. Expect him to drive in 140. Other players of note: Brian Giles has fantasy star potential, but has been trapped in an injured oblivion on the Pirates. Look for him to outperform expectations in a San Diego line-up in front of Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko. Sammy Sosa had a below-potential year in 2003, but the additions of Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, plus the return of Corey Patterson (note: sleeper potential, played great before getting injured last year) should get his numbers up.

Other star outfielders who should go in the first four rounds: Magglio Ordonez keeps getting better; Vernon Wells broke-out last year and will continue to produce; Lance Berkman, expect him to bounce back; Andruw Jones has his batting average on the rise; Juan Pierre, you can't ignore his steals and batting.

Not as good as last year/washed-up: Preston Wilson, Larry Walker, Luis Gonzalez, Ichiro Suzuki, Jay Payton, Juan Gonzalez.

Possible later round sleepers: Carlos Lee, Aubrey Huff, Miguel Cabrera, Austin Kearns, Jeromy Burnitz., Milton Bradley, Geoff Jenkins, and Jose Guillen.