Mock One Up

Hello again, baseball fans ... I hope you've had some time to pull yourself away from college hoops to get back to real sports -- by which I mean, of course, fantasy baseball.

That's right, your whole team is down south right now at spring training camps, and you better be ready to pick 'em. Soon it will be draft time, the season will be ripe and you'll be thanking the heavens that you were able to steal Austin Kearns in the 17th round.

To get those drafting juices flowing, I decided to get some buddies together and have a mock fantasy draft. I figured that this would be the best way to provide you readers out there with a guide for your teams. So let's get down to my draft review.

The mock draft we did was based on a 12-team league with the traditional 5 x 5 fantasy categories. Due to space limitations, I am unable to display the complete draft results for you, but I'll do my best to highlight the surprises and key picks.

The big shock of the first round was when Mark Prior went second overall after A-Rod. There's no doubt that Prior is going to be a superstar, but in truth, every starting pitcher, especially one who throws as many pitches as he does, is an injury risk, more so than a typical batter. Actually, Prior has already begun complaining about his achilles, which is a bad sign. Don't get me wrong, Prior will be sweet, but I would say that this pick was pre-mature with sure things Soriano (picked 3rd), Pujols (4), and Vlad (5) waiting in the wings.

The early Prior pick began a race to nab up the handful of top pitchers, and they were all off the table by the end of the second round, which I think is usually too early. I would guess that the Pedro Martinez (10th pick), Curt Schilling (13), and Randy Johnson (24) owners are all feeling slightly uneasy right now that they spent such an early pick on major liabilities. But you never know.

I was pleased to see Roy Halladay (9) go before any of them, and I think his owner can expect big things. Kerry Wood (17) also went surprisingly early, but in light of all the other pitchers being already snatched up, and the fact that he may be the only 250+ strikeout guy left out there, plus his ever-lowering ERA, I think that this was a wise pick-up.

Aside from the pitcher craze, the next trend in the second and third rounds was getting those position players. Boone (18), Tejada (19), Rolen (21), Renteria (26), Chavez (27), Jeter (29), Kent (30), and Mike Lowell (33) all went right away, in pretty much the expected order. Jeter, though, went way too early, considering his stats could be easily replicated by Rafael Furcal (76), Orlando Cabrera (65), or even the young Angel Berroa (83), who went much later.

The rush to fill positions left powerful outfielders Magglio Ordonez (20), Preston Wilson (22), and Sammy Sosa (25) all up for grabs later than their numbers should forecast. Furcal's owner took Lance Berkman (33) with his third round pick instead, and should be feeling very happy about those picks.

The next big trend that took shape involved catchers, of which there are actually a few solid players available. This is always difficult to gauge, because the guys who get in early can get a huge edge at that position over almost all other competitors. Of course, the Mets fan in this draft took Piazza absurdly high (37) before the much better Posada (39), and I-Rod (47), both of whom also went in the fourth round. Question mark Javy Lopez, with a fluke season behind him, was the last good catcher to go, picked first in the fifth round.

Another pattern to be aware of will revolve around closers. Yahoo! pre-ranks Eric Gagne as the number four overall pick, but this is stupid. There's no reason to jump the gun on closers (unless you really want Gagne) until someone else in your league does. Then hop on the train, and get one before they're gone. In this draft, they went in a pack, with Gagne (37), Foulke (44), Wagner (49), Smoltz (57), and Rivera (58) all snagged before anyone got a second chance.

Some other picks of note: Garrett Anderson finally got the respect he deserves and went at the very end of the third round (35); Josh Beckett went late (50) for his potential; Esteban Loaiza (66) was unfairly avoided until the sixth round, with past-injured Mulder (67) and Matt Morris (76) as the next pitchers to follow; one drafter did a particularly good job of using the later rounds to take upside potentials Adam Dunn (15th round), Pat Burrell (18th), and Jody Gerut (23rd).

Dmitri Young (13th round) went low as some decent trade bait, with third base eligibility; Carlos Lee also went very late (seventh round); one team ended up with some of last year's too-highly drafted, getting Glaus (fifth round), Shawn Green (eighth round), and Torii Hunter (tenth round) who will all be looking to have turnaround seasons (doubtful); the guy who suffered the curse of the first pick managed to get Randy Johnson as his second pick (24), which is probably the best he could have hoped for; other late pick sleepers were Aramiz Ramirez (ninth), David Ortiz (11th), Matt Lecroy (12th), Jose Guillen (16th) and Milton Bradley (17th).

My concluding advice: get the best players available in the first two rounds, and hope that one of them can be your SS, 2B or at least a 1B. By the third and fourth rounds, you should look to get an early jump on starting pitchers, and then afterwards try to focus on filling your positions. Look to get some sweet later position picks in Marcus Giles (2B), Luis Castillo (2B), Morgan Ensberg (3B), Hank Blalock (3B), and Orlando Cabrera (SS).

The outfielders will come later, there are plenty. As for closers and catchers, unless you use a fifth or sixth round pick on a star, it's no use worrying about them until the last rounds. Playing the waiver wire will keep you competitive at these spots. For the final rounds, go with your gut, risk it on potential sleepers, and you'll probably end up dropping them anyhow, but you never know who could turn into valuable trade bait.

That's all for now, good luck!