The Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves open up their National League Divisional Series tomorrow in Atlanta. While the Astros used a historic comeback to notch the NL Wild Card spot on the final day of the regular season, the NL East powerhouse Braves locked up their playoff spot long ago, winning the division by ten games.
The Braves finished with a record of 96-66 and the Astros, despite being under .500 midway through August, ended at 92-70. This series is one of contrasting stories, as the Braves were supposed to be worse than previous years, but continued to play as they have over the past decade and overachieved. The Astros, on the other hand, were one of the preseason favorites to win the World Series but underachieved for the first four months until finally pulling it together at the end.
Offense: Houston's lineup looks like an All-Star team, with Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent, and although Berkman is the only Astro in the lineup batting above .300, this lineup is one of the deepest, most dangerous in the majors.
Berkman might get a few MVP votes for his season of more than 30 homers and 100 RBI, while also having an on-base percentage of .450. Beltran's numbers, although split due to his trade from Kansas City, are certainly All-Star worthy. The Braves will have a hard time pitching around anyone in particular.
The Braves offense has less-feared names, but the numbers are comparable to Houston's in terms of runs and batting averages. This is surprising because both Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones have had better years in the past, but J.D. Drew has had an outstanding first season with Atlanta, batting over .300 with 31 homers and 93 RBI. The Braves also have good speed at the top of their order in the form of Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles.
Defense: If defense wins championships, neither of these teams would win, as both are in the lower half of the fielding percentage ranking. Interestingly, however, only three playoff teams are in the top 10, with the Dodgers being number one. The Braves' interior defense is hurt by shortstop Rafael Furcal, who is near the bottom of the league in errors with 24.
Most big hitters are not good fielders, and the same can be said for Houston's defense, with the exception of Jeff Kent and Jeff Bagwell, who are currently near the top of their respective positions in fielding percentage.
Starting Pitching: Some of us thought the Astros were premature in abandoning their playoff hopes by trying to trade Roger Clemens in the middle of the season. And some of us were right. The seemingly ageless Clemens has pitched superbly in the NL and is the favorite to take home yet another Cy Young Award.
Clemens is backed by Roy Oswalt, who won 20 games this season and would have been a number one starter on most other playoff teams. Despite injuries to rotation members Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller, the Astros have gotten good pitching from fill-ins Brandon Backe and Peter Munro - but Houston will use their aces as much as possible.
The Braves lack the big names, but their starting pitching has been just as good as Houston's. The Braves own the MLB's best team ERA at 3.70, and their four starters have been consistent, each having more than thirteen wins and, at most, nine losses. Jaret Wright, Atlanta's best this year, will start Game One, followed by John Thomson, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz. Of minor concern to Atlanta are Thomson and Hampton, who are slightly banged up heading into this postseason.
Bullpen: The Braves have one of the best closers in the league in John Smoltz, and despite his desire to start during the playoffs, his experience in playoff situations could be the deciding factor in this series. The rest of the Braves' bullpen, including Antonio Alfonseca, Kevin Gryboski and Chris Reitsma, has been effective all year.
The Astros' decision to get rid of struggling closer Octavio Dotel midway through the season could be one reason for their turnaround, as new closer Brad Lidge has been fantastic, with better numbers than Smoltz and a strikeout ratio of almost 15 per nine innings. The question is how Lidge, with only three years of pitching experience, will handle the playoffs.
Houston's middle relief is led by Chad Harville, Mike Gallo and Dan Miceli, all pitchers with decent numbers. However, the Astros, like the Braves, will be hoping their starters can take the games straight to the closer.
Coaching: When Phil Garner replaced Jimy Williams as the Astros were struggling along and poised to miss the playoffs, the move seemed to be effective only until the end of the season. That was the plan until Houston started winning, and winning often. In the other dugout sits Bobby Cox, a veteran of 22 seasons at the helm of the Braves and winner of one World Series title. While Atlanta's coaching clearly has more postseason experience and success, it is a surprise that Cox's playoff record is just 63-60.
Prediction- Too hot, too much depth in the lineup, and two aces on the mound- but the feisty, battle-tested Braves will make it tough ... Astros in 5.
