Both President George W. Bush and Democratic nominee John Kerrywill have to interpret shifting ideological and demographic trends,as well as factor in old patterns of support to win the presidency,Tufts professors say.
The nation's 17 swing states will likely decide the election,Professor Michael Goldman said. The varying turnout of certaindemographic or interest groups could decide electoral numbers instates where the race is closest.
Goldman said that "in some states, [this bloc] could be Jewishvoters; in some it could be Hispanic voters."
"Both [candidates] are looking to target voters inside swingstates - they target wherever they think the vote will go," Goldmansaid.
Racial demographics may prove important in terms of votingblocs, and both candidates have been campaigning aggressively tomobilize minority voters.
The Latino vote is a potential source of support for bothcandidates, according to Political Science Professor DeborahSchildkraut.
The Latino demographic grew from nine percent to 14 percent ofthe U.S. population between 1990 and 2000, according to the U.S.Census.
"On balance, Latino voters tend to support Democrats, but theirsupport is somewhat more up for grabs than the support of Blackvoters is," Schildkraut said. "Latinos in the U.S. tend to beconservative when it comes to social [and] family values issues,but liberal on economic issues."
The Bush administration has more aggressively campaigned toLatino voters than has Kerry's team, professors say.
Blacks are still overwhelmingly likely to vote Democrat,Shildkraut said, noting that Al Gore captured over 90 percent ofthe Black vote in 2000. "Republicans don't think they'll get them,and Democrats feel pretty secure," she said.
But Schildkraut said that traditional racial issues such asaffirmative action would not play an active role in this electoralrace. "They've actually been off the front burner for quite sometime," she said.
But the Black vote may be jeopardized by voter intimidationstrategies in non-white communities. "Putting up flyers in Blackcommunities saying that people have to pay all of their billsbefore they can vote or that they can vote up to three days afterElection Day," she said, is reminiscent of "Jim Crow-eradisenfranchisement."
The votes of ideologically-rooted interest groups could alsoprove decisive in key swing states, as long as they show up innumbers on Election Day.
"This year, with the historical effort to register new voters,the grass-roots value of interest groups is especially important,"political science Professor Gary McKissick said.
Many traditional interest groups provide support for candidatesdue to decades-old affiliations. "Their influence on issues isdecided way before the election," said political science ProfessorJeffrey Berry, describing how these groups gravitate toward aparticular party rather than its candidate's strengths andweaknesses.
"So, for instance, organized labor is an important voting blocfor the Kerry-Edwards campaign, because union voters tend to leantoward the Democratic candidate," McKissick said. "But unions areeven more important in terms of the effort they're spending toregister voters, canvass and all that."
McKissick said the same is true on the Bush-Cheney side fororganized Christian conservatives.
Interest groups who focus intently on a certain issue often havea higher turnout than broader coalitions, Goldman said.
"Motivated voters will vote," he said. Those who feel stronglyabout the death penalty or stem cell research "tend to vote inhigher numbers" than the average voter.
McKissick also noted the emergence of "independent expendituregroups across the ideological spectrum" like MoveOn.org. Theseorganizations have "become important fundraising and advertisingplayers," he said.
These groups, often called 527s after the legal loophole thatallows them to exist, are "really a new sort of interest group -more like political parties, in their general focus on electoralpolitics and the nature of their agendas," McKissick said.
"It will be interesting to watch how they develop in the yearsahead," McKissick said.
Poll statistics could also prove important in voter turnout.
"Polls are significant because they affect subsequent citizenbehavior, which in turn can affect the outcome [of the election],"Schildkraut said. If a candidate is lagging in the polls,volunteers may be disheartened and less active.
"Democrats, I think, were really in danger of that happeninguntil the first debate," Schildkraut said. "Then polls showed aKerry bounce, and now Dems are energized again, which means theymight give more money, might volunteer more, and might be morelikely to vote on Election Day."
Berry said that both parties will benefit from the close natureof this election. Nervousness about close poll results "will driveup voter turnout because they're motivated on Election Day," hesaid.
