@bodytext: You know what I haven't written about in a while? The Red Sox. Let's change that.
First off, just as I predicted, I remain as invested in the Sox as always. Although I'll be disappointed if they go 1-161 this season, in all honesty, they could win a total of 10 games in the next two seasons and I'd still be happy. You just cannot top this season. It's impossible.
Pulling off the greatest comeback in baseball history? Make that perhaps all of sports history. I have to keep reminding myself, however, that one championship isn't the end. I'm a normal fan now and normal fans aren't satisfied by one title every 86 years. The 2005 season must be played.
Truly great teams return to be champions again, season after season. In an era absent of dynasties, it would be even more impressive were the Sox to pull it off. To do so, however, Theo Epstein and the Sox management must figure out what to do with their free agents.
The Red Sox are in a totally unique situation this off-season. Four of our starting players are free agents and another 12 role players are also eligible to be signed by other teams. In light of this massive potential player turnover, I've decided to offer some unsolicited advice, player by player.
I'm probably more qualified to do this than you realize. Like Theo, I grew up in Brookline, love the Red Sox and am Jewish. Both our fathers are professors. We're two of the most lusted-after men in the city. What more do you need? Give me a little bit of a lisp, gel down my hair and I'm the general manager of the Sox.
1) Pedro Martinez, SP: Let's start with the biggest free agent on the list. Here's my analogy: Pedro is like "The Simpsons." Remember when "The Simpsons" were still tossing 97 mph heat every Sunday?
Well, no more. Yeah, it's still "The Simpsons," but their fastball now tops out at like 92. Sometimes you're still pleasantly surprised, but it's clearly not what it used to be.
That's Pedro these days. He's still Pedro, and against teams that haven't seen him before (the Cardinals, for example) he's still masterful. But he needs an inning or two to figure out what he has on a given night. The first inning is always a horror show.
That being said, what would you replace the Simpsons with? "Malcom in the Middle: The College Years"? In my opinion, seven innings of Pedro is better than eight of almost anyone else, even now. He's still got an extra gear for the playoffs. And he's still Pedro.
I totally agree with the Red Sox's contract offer of two years at about $12 million per year, with an option for a third. It's exactly what Curt Schilling gets and it's exactly what Pedro should get. I'd say the chances of him signing that contract are 85 percent. Pedro will be back.
2) Jason Varitek, C: Varitek is the quintessential team leader. Tek is everything you could ask for in a catcher. He's tough, he plays fantastic defense, hits well and handles pitchers well. If you have any doubts about what good veteran catchers can do for a team, check out what Ivan Rodriguez did for the Marlins.
The wild card with Varitek is Scott Boras, the money-thirsty agent who has taken it upon himself to ruin the sport. If Boras really wants a 25-year contract worth several billion dollars, the Sox will have to look elsewhere.
I love Varitek, but the Sox team has leadership. We cannot overpay for an aging catcher, great as he may be. Damien Miller is a great option for a year or two, and minor leaguer Kelly Shoppach should be ready in two or three years.
The Sox should offer Varitek three or four years at about seven or eight million dollars per year. I'd say a three-year deal worth about $23 million sounds right. He's fantastic, but not so fantastic that we should overpay. I'd say the chances of him returning are around 70 percent.
3. Derek Lowe, SP: Bye bye, Derek. What's amazing is that Lowe pitched his way off the Sox this postseason. Had he continued to stink we might have gotten him back for cheap, but in those last two playoff games he basically won the Mass State Lottery, and a one-way ticket out of town.
The Rangers should get him, as he makes a lot of sense for that team - which, I guess, is neither here nor there. Lowe is incredibly talented and should be one of the better starters in the American League. But for some reason he isn't, and he's never going to be. We won't offer him a contract. Chances of him returning are about 0.000002 percent.
4. Orlando Cabrera, SS: Minor leaguer Hanley Ramirez should be ready in 2006, or at the latest 2007, and he's going to be really good. It might be prudent, therefore, to use an inexpensive placeholder like Pokey Reese.
On the other hand, OCab is the Columbian Manny. Everyone on the Sox loves this guy. How could you not? This guy takes happy-go-lucky to a new level. One of my favorite stories from this season was OCab's ongoing efforts to mess with Manny; hiding his batting gloves, stealing his helmet to wear at the plate, hiding his socks in the locker room, etc.
Not to mention that he is fantastic defensively and clutch at the plate. If you couldn't tell, I love the guy. But signing free agents shouldn't be about personal feelings. If we can sign him at $18 million for three years, I say do it. I'd almost be willing to slightly overpay for him. Chances of him returning are about 50 percent.
That's the end of the big names. Of the rest, I'd say we should try to keep Curtis Leskanic, Doug Mirabelli, Scott Williamson, and Gabe Kapler. Mirabelli will probably leave to start meaningless games for the Rockies or something.
God, I can't wait for 2005.<$>
