The 2004 Boston Red Sox will be loved forever in New England. But the cold reality of baseball is that many of the players on this historic team will be playing in other cities next season.
Many of the top players that fans grew to love this October, like Jason Varitek, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera are headed for free agency. Boston won't be able to keep them all.
It's decision time: Who stays and who goes? As the loyal readers of "Inside the AL" know all too well, normally the answers to almost all questions baseball can be found in this space. But this time you won't find any definitive answers. There are just too many variables involved.
"Inside the AL" can't get in the heads of players, and it is the players who will have to ask themselves if they truly want to stay in Boston. Varitek and Lowe have hired money-grubbing agent Scott Boras to represent them. You know that stereotypical view that agents are selfish jerks only looking out for their own self interests? That's Scott Boras. If Boras grabs hold of the negotiations, then it's likely neither player will be back ,because he typically steers his clients to the highest bidder.
That being said, you can be sure Boston will do everything it can to re-sign Varitek. General manager Theo Epstein does not believe in overpaying players, no matter who they are. But one gets the sense that if Theo was going to overpay anyone, it would be the Boston catcher. Varitek has emerged as the leader of the team, and all the pitchers can't say enough about his preparation, focus and intensity. Plus, it's hard to find a catcher who puts up solid offensive numbers like 'Tek.
The Red Sox will probably offer something in the neighborhood of three years at $24 million, which would be a fair offer. Varitek might look for something in the $10 million per year range, but Boston's offer might be competitive enough that he won't let Boras turn it down.
Derek Lowe is another issue because of his mediocre regular season. His ERA in the last three seasons has jumped from 2.58 in 2002 to 4.47 in 2003 to 5.42 this year. Despite his strong postseason, those numbers don't warrant more than an offer of $3 or $4 million per year from Boston. Lowe will probably be able to find an offer worth double that from some other teams. Of all of Boston's big name free agents, Lowe is the most likely to leave.
Pedro Martinez is the wildcard of the group. His 2004 season was his worst in eight years, with his ERA climbing more than a run and a half from the previous season. He's getting older (33), and he's so small that there is an injury risk. One would expect a Boston offer of about three years and $11 to $12 million, but not much more than that. Will someone out there trump that and give him four years and $55 to $60 million? It's certainly possible, and Boston may very well choose to go with cheaper and safer alternatives. Brad Radke is one option. He consistently pounds the strike zone, a quality that is highly valued by Sox management.
The Red Sox infield has a few questions as well. At first base, Kevin Millar is under contract for one more season, but so is Doug Mientkiewicz. They will both make about the same amount, and both want to be starters.
In 2001 and 2003, Minky was an extremely useful player. He got on base at very high rates and provided exceptional defense. But in 2004, he was terrible at the plate. He has been fighting injuries, and it's hard to know if he can revert back to his 2003 level. Millar, on the other hand, had solid numbers at the plate in '04, but should be given the "Brian Daubach Award" for extreme streakiness. Millar is also three years older than Minky and doesn't provide the same quality on the defensive side. It's close to a toss-up, but Millar is probably slightly more likely to stay because of his easy to spell last name and his strong clubhouse presence.
Shortstop is the last big hole for Boston. The team would like to have Orlando Cabrera back, but Boston has so many other shortstop prospects in its farm system that it probably doesn't want to commit to Cabrera for the long term at big money. But the problem is that there aren't a whole lot of options out there for the Red Sox if they don't want to commit to Cabrera.
The final area where Boston will probably make a few adjustments is their middle relief corps. The Red Sox have a gap in that area because of the loss of Scott Williamson to elbow surgery. There isn't a lot out there, but Boston might benefit from the services of people like affordable free agents Steve Reed, Steve Kline or Chris Hammond.
Expect a lot of changes in 2005. But one thing is for sure; the Red Sox will be just as competitive then as they were in 2004. Unlike those of the New York Mets or Baltimore Orioles, the Red Sox' management is smart enough not to overpay for aging, overvalued free agents.
