About the only good news for Democrats coming out of the elections a week ago is that Republicans still do not have enough senators to block a filibuster by the Democrats. At least 60 senators must vote to block a filibuster, which is an effort by a group of senators (generally partisan) to prevent a bill from passing by organizing extended debate or speeches. Thus, any pro-choice advocate concerned about President Bush nominating conservatives who could overturn the Supreme Court's 1973 Roe v. Wade decision should not worry at the moment.
Yet after the 2006 Senate elections, the right for a woman to choose whether or not to have an abortion may no longer exist. To begin, two justices, Chief Justice William Rehnquist, who is ailing from thyroid cancer, and Justice John Paul Stevens, who is 84, will probably step down before the end of Bush's second term. As a result, Bush will have the opportunity to nominate at least two people. Given the fact that he is pro-life and has a record of nominating pro-life, staunch conservatives for positions in the U.S Court of Appeals, pro-life nominees for the Supreme Court would hardly be a surprise.
The second issue has been the recent controversy surrounding Republican Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who backs abortion rights. As one of the few pro-choice Republicans, he is a glimmer of hope to abortion-rights advocates who worry about the fate of Roe v Wade. However, Specter, who is in line to head the Senate Judiciary Committee, pledged Sunday not to stall the President's judicial nominees, even if they oppose abortion rights.
As head of the Judiciary Committee, the senator would have the power to schedule hearings, set up committee votes and make the process of appointing a justice as easy or as hard as he wants. If Specter lives up to his comments and makes the judicial appointment process a smooth one, even for pro-life nominees, then it will pose a huge problem to abortion-rights advocates.
The biggest issue at stake concerning the future of Roe v. Wade will be the results of the 2006 Senate races. There will be 33 Senate elections in 2006, of which 17 seats are currently held by Democrats, 15 by Republicans and one by an independent. Given the seemingly conservative trend in this country, evidenced to the reelection of Bush and net addition of four Republican senators, there is a distinct possibility that the Republicans could gain enough senators to reach the 60-plateau for blocking filibusters.
The 2006 Senate races in California, West Virginia, New York, Wisconsin, New Mexico, North Dakota and Florida, all states which are not overwhelmingly Democratic and have a Democratic senator currently in power, will likely be highly contested by Republicans.
Thus, the results of the 2006 Senate elections will be the most critical to the future of Roe v. Wade. If Republicans gain enough senators to prevent a filibuster by the Democrats while Bush has the opportunity to nominate justices with Arlen Specter as head of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the right for a woman to choose will probably be lost.
Stephan Vitvitsky is a junior majoring in Political Science and Economics.
