In a "Moneyball" era when children dream as much about managing baseball teams as they do about playing for them, it's no wonder that Tufts' Analysis of Baseball: Statistics and Sabermetrics class, offered by the Experimental College, has gained attention in the world of sports and received positive feedback from students. Thanks to the uniqueness of the program, the class was also able to attract two guest speakers to campus last week.
Zack Scott, the baseball operations assistant for the Boston Red Sox, and Jay Jaffe, an author for Baseball Prospectus and a baseball blogger who runs his own site, www.futilityinfielder.com, paid a visit to Medford and offered the class some insight into the world of baseball.
Scott, who works closely with general manager Theo Epstein, spoke candidly about Boston's philosophies, the team's strengths and weaknesses this season, and, of course, the now-infamous Mientkiewicz trade as well as Pedro Martinez's free agency.
According to Scott, the Sox put emphasis on depth and use the pockets of their payroll to make sure their team is balanced, especially since the aging roster has the potential for injuries.
"We come into this year with more depth than we've ever had, more quality," Scott said. "I think some of the guys on our bench could probably start for a lot of other teams. We're trying to prepare more for injuries because it's a long season, but we're not planning for the post season, necessarily. We're building for the marathon season. We want to cover our backs.
"You look at some other teams with large payrolls that don't seem to put an emphasis on depth," Scott added. "They'll have a deep lineup and a deep rotation 1-5, but it's rare that a team gets through a season without a starting pitcher getting hurt. I don't understand that philosophy of preparing."
Although the organization stresses the importance of a high on-base percentage for hitters - especially a high walk rate - as well as control for pitchers, it doesn't underestimate the other aspects of the game.
"We put significant value on defense and base running, but you might not believe that given the physiques of some of our players," Scott joked.
Scott stressed that despite Boston's killer lineup and the rings the players are all now touting, the team still has room for improvement. Bill James, a man famous for being the original baseball sabermetrician, is helping the Sox with statistical analysis projects. Sabermetrics is defined as the computerized statistical analysis of baseball data.
"We're trying to figure out why the Sox have such an inefficient offense," Scott said. "Given the amount of total bases we get on walks and hits, we're not getting as many runs as you would expect. Bill James has done some work in this area in an attempt to help us put a more efficient offense on the field."
According to Scott, the short left field in Fenway, which makes it difficult to advance from first to third on a single, could be a reason for some of the Sox' offensive problems. He also listed the historical lack of team speed on the Sox as well as their high strikeout rate as issues.
Scott also addressed some of the trades made in the offseason that set off a media frenzy. With too many first basemen crowding the roster, the Sox were forced to ask: Millar or Mientkiewicz?
"There was a time in the offseason when it was the last major move we had to make," Scott said. "It was the question of the day, anyone who walked into the office, you were asked - Millar or Mientkiewicz? We were split in that office. I started as a Mientkiewicz guy and switched over to Millar."
According to Scott, the Sox' ultimate decision wasn't necessarily a reflection of one player's superiority over the other.
"My opinion was that these players have different skill sets but would both add similar overall value to our club," he said. "So the choice wasn't as crucial as it seemed. It came down to who offered us the better deal, what teams were more aggressive."
As for Pedro's free agency ... despite the media hoopla, which Martinez himself has often instigated, Scott replied that it was merely business.
"We gave him what he asked for and the Mets trumped it," he said. "It was a good financial opportunity for him."
Jaffe also spoke of the Sox' offseason moves, analyzing the differences that ballparks can make for pitchers. According to Jaffe, some of Derek Lowe's struggles with the Sox can be attributed to the park factors. Lowe is a groundball pitcher, and because Fenway is not an easy field to play defense on, the park worked against Lowe.
"A lot of what Lowe went through in the past couple of years is being a victim of [Fenway]," Jaffe said.
According to Jaffe, Dodger Stadium, Lowe's new home park, is a pitchers' park but slightly favors hitters for home runs. Because Lowe doesn't give up a lot of fly balls, he should remain unaffected by the home run tendency at his new home park.
"Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher," Jaffe said. "Which [may] prevent hits on balls put in play."
Jaffe may agree with the Sox' decision not to re-sign Derek Lowe, but he questions their acquisition of David Wells. According to Jaffe, the park factors at Fenway could make Wells a liability this season.
"I'm interested to see Wells [this season]," Jaffe said. "He's a left-handed pitcher, and he gives up a lot of fly balls. He's particularly ill-suited to pitching at Fenway - that's a lot of home runs over the Monster. I'm surprised the Sox bid on him. In a large part I think that might have been a defensive move, to prevent him from signing with the Yankees."
