Major League Baseball's first week is over and many people already want to write an obituary for New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, send Boston Red Sox shortstop Edgar Renteria to AAA and award the American League home run title to Tampa Bay Devil Rays shortstop Jorge Cantu.
Rivera and Renteria have been a few of the big names that have struggled, and Cantu might be playing like Barry Bonds right now, but people should pause before drawing too many conclusions in the first week.
Let's start with Rivera. He certainly has struggled (he has blown two of his four save opportunities), but he should recover. The Yankee fireman missed much of spring training because of bursitis in his elbow, so he is still a bit rusty. Also, focusing solely on his blown saves is a bit misleading.
In the April 6 meltdown against the Red Sox, Rivera did struggle with his control (he walked three), but his problems were really compounded by third-baseman Alex Rodriguez's key error on a potential double-play ball. If Rodriguez had made the play, people wouldn't even be talking about this. Rivera should be fine.
The first week is such a small sample size that there is also little reason to be concerned about the slow starts of people like Renteria and Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez. Ramirez's bat will get hot at any moment; there is no doubt about that.
Renteria will improve as well, but his slow start highlights an important fact. Renteria is an overrated offensive player. He may have mashed in 2003, but that season is looking more and more like a fluke. In 2004 Renteria posted a measly .728 OPS, with an especially bad .655 OPS against right-handed pitchers. He will get better - he can't bat .158 all season - but he might not come on as strong as some people think.
So what are some observations we can make definitively? Let's stroll through the American League.
Richie Sexson looks surprisingly healthy after shoulder surgery. Inside the AL was worried because of the poor recovery record associated with surgery on a hitter's shoulder, but Sexson has been crushing the ball.
Inside the AL may have been wrong about Sexson, but it predicted a breakout for Texas Ranger outfielder Richard Hidalgo. Again, it is early, but Hidalgo is leading the Rangers in every offensive category, and the Rangers haven't even played a game in hitter-friendly Arlington, TX yet, either.
The Oakland Athletics have to be happy with pitcher Danny Haren's first outing. Haren, whom the A's acquired in the Mark Mulder trade, pitched six innings and allowed just one run. The A's will need a strong season from Haren to make the playoffs, but in order to even be in contention for the postseason Barry Zito needs to get his act together. Zito has been shelled in his two starts.
The Detroit Tigers look improved (you'd hope so, considering their owner, Mike Ilitch, spent tens of millions of dollars in the free agent market). Despite the improvements, it's hard to see how the Tigers will be able to beat out the Minnesota Twins for the division and either the Red Sox or Yankees for the wildcard.
The Devil Rays are in first place! Read that sentence once more, just because you won't be seeing it again until pre-opening day 2006. The D-Rays are riding Jorge Cantu and his 1.300 OPS as far as they will take them. The Rays actually have a number of solid young players. Outfielder Carl Crawford is incredibly athletic and still getting better. Minor league shortstop B.J. Upton could be a superstar, injured outfielder Rocco Baldelli should be a productive player for years to come when he returns (even though it could be next season), and Cantu looks very solid. If the Rays can find an entire pitching staff - don't hold your breath - they could have a bright future.
