Take a look at the National League wild card standings, and you'll likely note a few interesting phenomena. You'll see five teams all within three games of one another, four of which represent the NL East. Also, you might notice that not a single team has made a big push for the "pennant," as each has fared no better than 6-4 in its last ten contests. So, which of the five major wild card contenders will emerge from the pack? Let's break it down.
Philadelphia Phillies: Right now amidst a pivotal series with the Houston Astros, the Phillies' only series remaining against a team under .500 comes later this month in a three-game set on the road against the Cincinnati Reds. Other than that, it's contender after contender this month for Philadelphia, although this is a recurring theme for all the wild card combatants.
The fact that Brett Myers has been the team's most reliable starter all year long is some cause for concern, but as long as Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Ryan Howard (Jim Thome, who?) keep swinging the bats, the Phillies will have a shot. And there's always that Wagner guy at the back of the pen. Billy is coming off an August in which he gave up zero runs and three hits while racking up seven saves and one win in 10.2 innings of work.
Florida Marlins: The offense in Florida hasn't been anything to write home about, especially in August, when the team averaged fewer than four runs per game. With Juan Encarnacion and Jeff Conine the only regulars posting an average above .290 for the month, Florida isn't winning anything at the plate. But when you pitch like the Marlins, who posted a 3.70 team ERA last month, anything is possible. Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett led the way in August, each posting 4-2 records with 1.06 and 2.32 ERAs, respectively.
The Marlins run into trouble with the schedule gods, however. With only nine home games and 17 on the road, Florida faces an uphill battle against wild card rivals Philadelphia, Houston, the Washington Nationals, New York Mets, and the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.
Houston Astros: As the only non-NL East team fighting for a wild card spot, Houston, unlike Florida, has scheduling working in its favor. With multiple series against the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs along with one series at the Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston has far and away the softest schedule of the wild card contenders.
Offensively, the Astros were nearly as anemic as the Marlins in August, with only Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane providing any kind of productivity. But with ageless aces Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte (2-2, 1.70 ERA; 4-2, 2.25 ERA respectively, in August), keeping them in games, nobody is counting Houston out.
Washington Nationals: With Jose Vidro banged up, and already severely lacking offensive production, the Nationals' "feel-good" story of 2005 might not have a magical ending. The July addition of outfielder Preston Wilson helped, but he, along with Nick Johnson and Jose Guillen, will need to step up in September, especially if Vidro is still sidelined.
If the Nats can stay out of trouble in their next three match-ups with the Marlins, Braves, and Mets, relief is in sight - in the form of struggling NL West opponents: the somehow-division-leading San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants. If Washington can take advantage of lesser competition when possible and fight hard against contenders, anything can happen.
New York Mets: Coming off a big offensive August, led by David Wright, who batted .378 with six home runs and 27 RBI for the month, the Metropolitans will be nothing if not exciting this month. If Cliff Floyd and Ramon Castro can keep up their solid production, and if Carlos Beltran has a September reminiscent of his 2004 October, the Mets will turn some heads in the NL. The biggest question mark could be our old friend Pedro Martinez, who is 1-3 in his last six outings and is coming off his worst month of the season.
The Mets, like the other NL East contenders, have their work cut out for them in the schedule department, but if they stay within even two games going into the final weekend, a season-ending series with Colorado could help elevate New York into the playoffs.
The Verdict: There is certainly no lack of talent in the NL wild card race, but it might all come down to the schedule. While the NL East contenders are beating up on one another, look for the Houston Astros to feast on lesser opposition and emerge from the pack as the winner of the National League wild card berth.
