Last season, the Boston Red Sox were led by an elite group of starting pitchers, a potent offense, and a dominant closer on their way to the World Series Championship.
The offense remains as potent as ever, but if the Sox hope to repeat, starter Curt Schilling and closer Keith Foulke will need to return to their 2004 level of play. That is a big request of these two former all-stars, as both have battled health problems throughout the season. Foulke continues to be bothered by bad knees that may have caused his mysterious loss of velocity, and Schilling's famous ankle may still be hampering his throwing motion.
Without these two heroes from '04, Boston is left with a mediocre starting rotation and a downright horrific bullpen. There was some hope that 2005 first-round pick Craig Hansen, a flamethrower from St. John's, could step in during the September playoff chase and save the day, but he has been fighting a tired arm.
Without Hansen, veteran Mike Timlin is left as the sole dependable pitcher in the Boston pen. Rookie Jon Papelbon's 95 mile-per-hour fastball provides the Sox some firepower at the end of games, but his inexperience and lack of a consistent second pitch make him vulnerable to stronger lineups. Mike Myers is great against lefties, but he's normally only effective for a batter or two. Submariner Chad Bradford was a solid pickup, but he's not going to set the world on fire either.
So what can the Sox do about their bullpen problem? Virtually nothing. There was no one worth trading the farm for at the July 31 deadline and, unfortunately, the recent pickups of pitchers like Matt Perisho, Chad Harville, and others won't do the job. The best Boston can do is hope that Timlin builds on the good year he is having, Papelbon's fastball proves to be enough - a starter like Bronson Arroyo can be counted on for a few outs from the pen in the playoffs, and most importantly, Foulke can regain his 2004 form. Those are certainly a lot of ifs, but stranger things have happened.
Boston's starters are less of a problem, but they are not a strength as they were in 2004. David Wells, who is pitching very well right now, has a great record for past Octobers. Matt Clement has also been pitching better of late, and he should be able to provide some quality starts down the stretch. Tim Wakefield and Arroyo can be shaky at times, but they can also go out and throw eight shutout innings on any given day. Again, if Curt Schilling can come around, this starting staff isn't half bad.
If the Sox hope to roll to another championship in '05, they will also need to make sure their offense can continue carrying them as they have all season. Right now everything is clicking on the offensive side for Boston. Right fielder Trot Nixon is healthy, which means Sox fans no longer have to suffer through many Gabe Kapler at-bats against right-handed pitchers (it's a scary sight). Edgar Renteria has continued his career trend of crushing left-handed pitching and being awful against right-handers.
The only gaping hole in the lineup for most of the season has been first base. Kevin Millar may rally the troops in the clubhouse, but he hasn't swung the bat well this season (other than the last couple of weeks). John Olerud may be the answer to the problem. Even though he's 37, the former batting champ has helped the Sox both in the field and at the plate. Though it is almost certainly a fluke, Olerud has even flashed great power so far this season, posting a .524 slugging percentage.
If Olerud gets injured or slows down, journeyman Roberto Petagine deserves more playing time. Petagine has a .900 OPS this season (granted, in only 26 at-bats) but he has absolutely torn up the Japanese League the last four seasons, and he was mashing in AAA before being called up. Boston should find a way to get him some more at-bats.
So will the story of the 2005 Boston Red Sox be a team that could hit but do little else? Or will the pitching come around just in time to save the day?
The bottom line is that if Foulke and Schilling can find themselves, Boston has as good a shot as anyone else in the American League, and if not, October may not be as exciting this time around for Red Sox Nation.
