It wouldn't be fall without the Fall Classic. And I would be disingenuous to not comment on baseball's biggest stage.
Currently, the White Sox have a 2-0 lead over the Astros. How did this happen? How did baseball end up with the White Sox two games away from a World Series title?
I don't want to diminish the accomplishments of the White Sox, but Joe Crede isn't exactly Jason Varitek or Derek Jeter. Paul Konerko - who certainly doesn't compare to A-Rod, Vlad, Pujols, Papi or Manny - isn't even the best slugger in the World Series right now with Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, and Morgan Ensberg on the Astros. Carl Everett has always been more likely to hit an opponent than hit a home run and A. J. Pierzynski is a cheater.
Chicago's starting rotation from top to bottom is solid. But so is the pitching on the Angels, Indians, Athletics and quite a few National League teams. Yeah, it's good, but we're not talking about a rotation of Dontrelle, Beckett, Burnett, Penny and Pavano on the Marlins' 2003 World Series team.
The White Sox' bullpen stands out as really being superb with Dustin Hermanson (former Red Sox), Cliff Politte (former Phillie), and Bobby Jenks (who looks a lot like the closer in 'Major League' - "This guy threw at his own son in a father son game!"). Throw Damaso Marte and El Duque into the mix and you can understand why the Astros didn't score a run past the fourth inning in Game One.
But really, how did the White Sox make it this far with just a decent rotation and a good bullpen? Was it really speed defense and pitching that took this team to within striking distance of its first title in 88 years?
At face value, fans would look at this series and say that the Moneyball strategy of valuing players with plate discipline and power is a thing of the past. Both the Astros and the White Sox struggled all season long to score runs. And yet here they are competing for the biggest prize in the sport.
But don't start writing a eulogy for statistical baseball philosophy yet. Whether you agree with me or not, the White Sox have been statistically "lucky" this season. They have overachieved. Yes, they won 99 games and had the best record in the American League. But baseball comes down to runs. Runs are the currency of the sport. As a team, you want to have the best run differential possible.
Bill James, the first, and still the best, sabermetrician out there, identified that you can closely predict winning percentage using a formula that resembles the Pythagorean Theorem, except it uses 1.85 for the exponent. He called it Pythagorean Wins: W% = (RS^1.85)/(RS^1.85+RA^1.85).
Based on James' theorem, the White Sox' win percentage should have been closer to .564 rather than actual .611. Instead of winning 99 games, they should have won only 91. The Cleveland Indians, who outscored and out-pitched the White Sox this season, should have won 96 games according to Pythagorean Wins rather than 93 - a total which kept them out of the playoffs.
How did the White Sox do it? It must have been "Ozzieball!" Ozzie Guillen is a baseball mastermind. Or, as any Cubs fan (who is probably blue in the face right now with the Southsiders two games away from a title) could tell you, they got lucky. Yes it can happen over a whole season. It's a statistical outlier. The White Sox came out on top in close games. That's what a good bullpen will do for you.
So now you're asking me how the White Sox have managed take a 2-0 stranglehold in the World Series if they're such a "lucky" team. Do I really have to answer this question? How about Tony Graffinino as a logical answer? According to Jayson Stark, in Game Two of the ALDS, David Wells lost a game in which he held a four-run lead for the first time in his 19-year career. That's a record of 135-0 with 16 no-decisions. If the Red Sox had won Game Two, there's no telling what would have happened with the series tied going back to Fenway.
What about A.J. Pierzynski? The guy stole first base and the White Sox stole Game Two in the ALCS. What would have happened if the Sox had headed to Anaheim down 2-0? At the very least, there would have been a Game Six.
But now it's the World Series. Perhaps the White Sox have stumbled into good fortune again with the Rocket suffering a groin injury and Brad Lidge serving one up to Scott Podsednik. Podsednik - who did not hit even one home run during the regular season - has two in the postseason, with one coming against arguably the best closer in the game.
So enjoy it White Sox fans. I hate to say that luck is the name of the game, but I have no other explanation. You will very rarely see a team get this lucky in one season.
Alex Bloom is a sophomore who has not declared a major yet. He can be reached via e-mail at alexander.bloom@tufts.edu
