Best Actorin a Leading Role
Philip Seymour HoffmanCAPOTE
Terrence HowardHUSTLE & FLOW
Joaquin PhoenixWALK THE LINE
David StrathairnGOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
OUR PREDICTION:Heath LedgerBROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Terrence Howard's performance in "Hustle and Flow" is supposed to be amazing, but this reviewer hasn't seen it. So Terrence Howard is out by default. That leaves four actors who are nominated based on their abilities to produce (or, in three cases, reproduce) distinctive voices: Truman Capote's nasally whine, Edward R. Murrow's smoky dulcet tones, Johnny Cash's gravelly baritone, and fictional Ennis Del Mar's gruff cowboy drawl. Cash and Capote were such larger-than-life personas that even the best portrayal of either of them is bound to verge on caricature. This kind of criticism, however unfair, will be what keeps Hoffman or Phoenix from taking home the gold. That leaves Strathairn and Ledger. While Strathairn's turn as the famed journalist is compelling, Oscar buzz has passed him by. So, while we haven't forgotten "10 Things I Hate About You" yet, we're giving this one to Heath. - Blair Rainsford
Best ACTRESSin a LEADing Role
Judi DenchMRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Felicity HuffmanTRANSAMERICA
Keira KnightleyPRIDE & PREJUDICE
Charlize TheronNORTH COUNTRY
OUR PREDICTION:Reese WitherspoonWALK THE LINE
It won't be the year for the man behind the Man in Black, but it will be for his little lady. America's blondest sweetheart, Reese Witherspoon, has tried before to trade in her bubblegum persona for meatier roles but her role as June Carter Cashwill clinch her her first statue. This year's favorite, Witherspoon's only fear comes by way of Felicity Huffman's gender-bending, ugly-fying role in "Transamerica." The Academy, which pretends not to be predictable, may follow precedent and reward this year's transformer ? la Charlize Theron for "Monster" (2003). Which brings us to the other leading ladies. Theron and Dame Judi Dench already have statues. Our hearts go out to 20-year-old Keira Knightly who surely won't see her first bid become a win at such a tender age, but the sophisticated and accessible actress will become a force to be reckoned with in the coming years - and then she might be the Dame. - Stephanie Vallejo
Best ActOR in a SUPPORTING Role
Matt DillonCRASH
Paul GiamattiCINDERELLA MAN
Jake GyllenhaalBROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
William HurtA HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
OUR PREDICTION:George ClooneySYRIANA
Despite our clawing desire to support a fellow Jumbo, compared to the other Oscar hopefuls, William Hurt's performance in "A History of Violence" simply hasn't gleaned the media attention to warrant a win. While Matt Dillon will prove to be a strong contender in the "Hey, Weren't You in 'The Outsiders'?" category, the struggle for the statuette will be waged between Academy Award wundercontender George Clooney (nominated for writing, directing, and acting) and ex-Bubble Boy Jake Gyllenhaal. Ultimately, a blood-curdling depiction of fingernail loss trumps forbidden cowboy love, and Clooney will double as America's conscience and a first-time Oscar winner. - Kate Drizos
Best ActRESS in a SUPPORTING Role
Amy AdamsJUNEBUG
Catherine KeenerCAPOTE
Frances McDormandNORTH COUNTRY
Michelle WilliamsBROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
OUR PREDICTION:Rachel WeiszTHE CONSTANT GARDENER
Rachel Weisz is currently the favorite with her performance in the thriller/drug company expos?©, "The Constant Gardener." But don't count out the power of the big pharmaceutical companies in Oscar voting. If Pfizer & Co. use some of their muscle to sway the voting (or maybe if predictions are just wrong) there could be an upset from either Michelle Williams in or Amy Adams. Williams's portrayal of a tortured wife stands out amid the inescapable pop culture cyclone of bad Jay Leno jokes, and Adams is a favorite of many indie critics and Sundance attendees. "To Kill a Mockingbird" nostalgia alone could snag Catherine Keener some votes, and as for Frances McDormand, Oscar buzz indicates that she probably shouldn't worry about preparing a speech. Prediction: Weisz will walk off with the statue, but don't be surprised if Williams manages steal the show. - Gregory Connor
Best FEATURE MOTION PICTURE
CAPOTECaroline Baron, William Vince, and Michael Ohoven
CRASHPaul Haggis and Cathy Schulman
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCKGrant Heslov
MUNICHKathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg, and Barry Mendel
OUR PREDICTION:BROKEBACK MOUNTAINDiana Ossana and James Schamus
The Academy and The Daily both save the best (Best Picture, that is) for last, but we all know which movie is taking home the statue. Right away, you can scratch "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Munich" off the ballot. Both are worthy noms, but they're merely showcases for talented directors. And Stephen Spielberg is so 1999. As for "Capote," whine as Philips Seymour Hoffman might, he killed the movie's chances for victory when his performance eclipsed the rest of the film. That leaves "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain." Is there a chance "Crash" could win, especially since it's a better overall film? Sure. Hey, "Lord of the Rings" beat "Mystic River," in 2004, right? But Oscar night comes down to who's sleeping with who, especially if "who" is a gay cowboy. "Brokeback" is a landmark film that's clinging to leading man Heath Ledger's coattails. And the "Brokeback" team can ride that pony all the way to Oscar gold. - Kelly Rizzetta
