The New Jersey Nets have had a history of bad starts since Lawrence Frank took over as head coach midway through the 2002-03 season, opening at or below .500 through this point in each of the past two years. Still, the Nets recovered in time to make the playoffs in both seasons.
But even though history suggests that 7-12 New Jersey will rebound from its latest sluggish start, there is nonetheless cause for concern.
The Nets fared uncharacteristically well through the first eight games of the season, boasting a 5-3 mark that included a victory over the previously-unbeaten Utah Jazz. But since then, New Jersey has resumed its traditional early-season losing ways, with nine losses in its last 11 games and a three-game losing streak heading into tonight's contest against the Memphis Grizzlies.
It's difficult to pinpoint why the 2006-07 Nets are struggling. For instance, New Jersey has hardly risen to the challenge of playing stiff Western Conference competition, going 0-8 against the West since its victory over Utah Nov. 8.
But at the same time, the Nets haven't fared well against weak Eastern Conference opposition, either. Since their 5-3 start, the Nets have managed just a split of four games in the East, dropping contests to the five-win Charlotte Bobcats on Nov. 28 and the lowly Boston Celtics on Saturday night. Their two wins against Eastern teams, one an earlier road contest against the Celtics and the other a home victory over the Philadelphia 76ers, were only by a combined eight points.
Nor can the Nets' early-season woes be attributed to an underperforming offense. During a Thursday night rematch against the Suns, New Jersey scored a franchise-record 157 points, 38 of which were manufactured by point guard Jason Kidd en route to his 78th career triple-double. Still, New Jersey could not stop the high-octane Phoenix Suns. Bolstered by 42 points from reigning MVP Steve Nash, Phoenix edged the Nets by four points in double-overtime.
The 161 points yielded to Phoenix aside, the last three weeks have seen the Nets defense improve drastically but without much impact in the win column. While allowing over 100 points six times in their first eight games, the Nets still held a winning record - the only team in the feeble Atlantic Division to do so - and a 1.5 game lead for first in the division over Philadelphia.
However, although it has surrendered triple digits just four times in its last 11 games, New Jersey has managed to slip below .500, trimming their lead in the Atlantic to only a half game over the New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors.
Perhaps the only explanation for the Nets' struggles is that they can neither maintain comfortable leads nor surmount overwhelming deficits. During Saturday's home loss to Boston, the Nets saw an 18-0 first quarter lead dwindle to a three-point halftime cushion before falling, 92-90, on a Paul Pierce buzzer-beater over Kidd.
Two weeks earlier, when New Jersey played Phoenix for the third game of an eventual 0-4 Western trip, the Nets were the team making the comeback, though their efforts fell short. Despite cutting a 22-point third-quarter deficit to three with 21 seconds remaining (courtesy of a 21-point fourth quarter from rookie Marcus Williams), Nash nailed three late free throws to seal the Suns' victory.
Regardless of what is afflicting them through their early-season struggles, it is a virtual lock that the Nets, regarded as easily the most talented team in the Atlantic, will rebound to claim their fifth division title in six years. And even under the NBA's new playoff seeding system, the team with the Atlantic's top record is guaranteed at least the number four seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and home-court advantage in the first round.
Still, the window of opportunity for the Nets to win an NBA title is slowly closing. Kidd, who upon his arrival in 2001 brought the franchise from a league laughingstock to a championship contender, is 33 years old and undoubtedly on the downswing of a Hall of Fame career. Shooting guard Vince Carter, averaging 27 points per game, is in the final year of his contract and could be lost to free agency during the summer. Despite all their potential long-term issues, however, New Jersey should remain competitive in the East this season.
