Skip to Content, Navigation, or Footer.

Modeling is a complex process, but a valuable tool

About 40 students and a handful of professors attended the second in a series of lectures hosted by the Tufts Economics Society last night in the Crane Room of Paige Hall.

Richard Henken, who attended Tufts as both an undergraduate and graduate student, dicussed his experience as an economist in the important and changing world of economic modeling.

Before explaining the economic modeling part of the lecture, Henken spoke briefly about economics in general, his own belief being that the importance of economics stems from "the way it makes us abstract away from all the white noise and get to the heart of the matter."

The event title, Real World Lessons in Economic Modeling, reflected that focus on economics as an everyday tool.

Henken, as a professional economist, shared anecdotes from his own of work experience to show how mathematical economics play into everyday life and its broader implications in the national economy.

Henken's lecture mainly focused around four "key lessons" about economic modeling which he learned in the real world, but wished he had been exposed to in school.

"In school we learn the pure science," he said, but "the reality is that models aren't perfect. It's more about understanding cause and effect than getting the right answer."

Though the first lesson showed that "complex problems require simple models," "as soon as I release my forecast I know it is wrong"- the second lesson.

Considering "the marriage of the model and the model maker," and the quick onset of "diminishing marginal returns to effort are also important, he said.

He addressed each of these points in detail, and often demonstrated the lessons from his personal experiences as a consultant at Harris Bank in Chicago and working for Mars, Inc., the company that makes M&M's, Snickers, as well a variety of pet foods.

This was essentially his outlook when creating economic models, and he continually pointed out that models were imperfect. Only through constant adaptation and contextual understanding of the model's statistics can they have any value at all.

Despite these imperfections, Henken clearly had no doubt about the importance of economic modeling and its use in the business world, and stated that the ability to "effectively switch from the magnifying glass to the wide-angle lens" when examining problems is "a very, very important skill."

He once again pointed out the omnipresence of economics, saying "everything can be modeled," and said of his own experience, "Once you've acquired the discipline, you're always modeling."

Following the lecture, Henken answered a few questions posed by students, and even posed a few himself, asking the seniors majoring in economics whether or not they had jobs lined up for after graduation, and if finding them was difficult.

Nick Haslett, president of the Tufts Economics Society was very pleased with the event.

"We advertised mainly to economics students, so I was happy with the turnout," he said. "I just wanted people to hear some practical stories."

"When you hear about working for a pet food company in Belgium, you wonder where you'll wind up."