Winter on the Hill has not been itself lately. Along with the rest of southern New England, Tufts still has yet to see either a big snowstorm or any lasting snow cover on the ground.
Some residents of the area may welcome the weather, which means safer sidewalks and better driving conditions. Others are looking at the reduced fall foliage, increased temperatures, and lack of snow as evidence of the current effects of global warming.
Professor Barry Rock, who studies natural resources at the University of New Hampshire, said New England has already seen a temperature increase of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1899. Rock recognizes that the temperature change has made its mark.
"Recent falls have started later and have been very warm, too warm for fall colors to fully develop," Rock said via e-mail. "Winters have become shorter and warmer, resulting in a significant loss of winter activity income ... and the maple sugar season has started earlier and has become shorter, resulting in reduced syrup production."
There is no official consensus that this past winter's weather has been a direct result of climate change, but research professor Paul Kirshen of the civil and environmental engineering department says that it might be.
"Right now we're seeing more variability in our day-to-day weather," Kirshen said. "I'm not saying that the erratic nature of our winter or the fact that it's been so warm is due to climate change, because there are natural cycles. But it's sort of indicative of the kind of variable climate we might see with climate change. I'm not sure if this is exactly due to climate change - it may be - but we don't know if it has changed or not."
Rock explained that El Ni?o, a weather pattern that occurs every six to eight years, has had some impact on the lack of snow this winter, but that it's not completely responsible.
"It can be argued that either this El Ni?o is much stronger, or it is working in combination with something else. In either case, global warming is very likely a major contributor to the odd fall and winter so far," he said.
Rock and Kirshen both said the potential climate change for New England would include a temperature increase of 3 degrees to 7 degrees Fahrenheit within the next 70 years. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, if the world continues to emit the same levels of greenhouse gases for the next 70 years, Massachusetts will have a summer climate similar to that of present-day South Carolina, with an increase of up to 12 degrees Fahrenheit.
The UCS has delineated two potential paths for the climate: one that will result from low-emissions and another from business-as-usual high-emissions. The low-emissions scenario relies on a reduction of our dependence on fossil fuels and conscious changes to promote green energy. High-emissions scenarios would result from no change at all in current levels of energy consumption.
"If we do take action now, there's a drastically different path that the degree change will take," Kirshen said. "It's a big difference. It really shows the necessity to take action to control emissions. The sooner we start doing it the better it is. It's going to get warmer no matter what we do."
Now that New Englanders are starting to experience the potential warmer climate, they may be paying attention.
"There has been a significant increase in public interest and awareness of climate change just in the past year," Rock said. "Certainly the current conditions in the fall and winter are a factor." He added that sources in the media, like the films "An Inconvenient Truth," and "Happy Feet," along with TIME magazine's cover story about global warming, may also be influencing people.
Rock said the increased awareness of global climate issues is resulting in a more prolific public dialogue.
"People are a lot more interested in climate change, and Bush even mentioned it in [the State of the Union address this week], which is indicative of the fact that it is entering the debate," he said.
Despite dire predictions from scientists regarding the future of the environment, there are actions that individuals can take to reduce climate change. The Union of Concerned Scientists' Web site has recommendations for reducing emissions, many of which are cheap and simple.
On a legislative level, states trying to enact stricter air quality standards have met resistance and lawsuits from manufacturers, according to Rock. Some states are also joining eco-friendly groups: Massachusetts recently rejoined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.
According to Kirshen, plans for the future must include climate change as a given.
"Historically we've built infrastructure assuming that climate was not going to change," he said. "But now we know that it is. So, for example, if we're building near the coast we have to build differently because of rising sea levels. Now we have to factor in climate change in our future policy decisions."
