With conference championships decided, national title hopefuls learned their fates Sunday, as the NCAA Selection Committee set its field of 65 teams for the Div. I men's college basketball tournament. Today, the Daily commences its two-day preview of March Madness with an analysis of the left side of the bracket, where several teams will vie for a trip to the Final Four in the St. Louis and San Jose Regionals.
In the Midwest regional, overall No. 1 seed Florida begins its quest for a second-consecutive NCAA title with a Friday battle against Southwestern Athletic Conference champion Jackson State. Having recently won both the SEC regular season and conference tournament, the Gators are primed for a run to the Final Four.
Florida's path to Atlanta, however, presents many obstacles. Rounding out the top four seeds in the region are No. 2 Wisconsin, No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Maryland.
The Badgers will take on No. 15 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi while the Ducks square-off against No. 14 Miami (Ohio) in games where upsets are likely improbable.
Maryland's match-up against Southern Conference champion and No. 13 Davidson proves a more difficult match-up for the Terrapins. The Wildcats posted a 17-1 conference record to buttress a 29-4 overall record in one of the stronger non-power conferences and are in perfect position to pick up a few upset wins.
That said, Maryland won seven-straight to finish the regular season, including back-to-back wins against Duke and North Carolina in late February. Despite their opening-round loss to the University of Miami in the opening round of the ACC Tournament on March 8, the Terps will still retain their late-season momentum. The Wildcats, meanwhile, played only one Top-25 team all season, receiving a 75-47 thrashing at the hands of Duke. The edge in this match-up goes to the Terrapins.
Strong sleeper candidates in the St. Louis region include No. 11 Winthrop and No. 12 Old Dominion. Indeed, the most compelling contest might be the Monarchs' game against the No. 5 Butler Bulldogs. Old Dominion downed Georgetown in November and played solid conference ball to garner an at-large bid and will certainly not roll over to the Bulldogs without a fight. If Old Dominion rallies past a formidable Butler team, the Monarchs will likely have enough momentum to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Winthrop, on the other hand, poses a threat to No. 6 Notre Dame. All four of Winthrop's losses this season came against nationally-ranked teams, making the Eagles a force with which to contend. A likely second round opponent, Oregon would almost certainly rather play the Fighting Irish than duel with a Winthrop squad playing the role of a low-seeded, victory-hungry underdog.
And while No. 8 Arizona vs. No. 9 Purdue and No. 7 UNLV vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech will provide for entertaining basketball, the respective winners of those games will have their work cut out for them in the second round against either Florida or Wisconsin.
Moving onto the San Jose region, Big-12 Tourney victor Kansas captured the region's top seed, setting up the Jayhawks to play the winner of today's play-in game between Florida A&M and Niagara. Either way, Kansas will advance to the second round to take on the winner of No. 8 Kentucky and No. 9 Villanova.
Kentucky slouched its way into its 14th-straight NCAA Tournament on the heels of a mediocre regular season that saw the Wildcats lose all six of their games against ranked foes, coupled with few memorable wins. Villanova managed a pair of wins over ranked teams during the regular season, and though it appears to have an edge on Kentucky, the odds of Villanova downing Kansas in the second round are slim.
San Jose's second seed, the UCLA Bruins, square-off against Big Sky champion and No. 15 seed Weber State in a game that should not prove too taxing for a UCLA team that is arguably the best No. 2 seed in the tournament. The Bruins will have a second-round date with the winner of the contest between No. 7 Indiana and No. 10 Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs are a perennial tournament force and bring the experience of nine-consecutive tourney appearances to the floor against the Hoosiers. The Zags are 3-2 against Top 25 teams this season and have won 11 of their last 14, compared with an Indiana team that lost 6 of its last 12 games. A streaking Gonzaga team presents a much more worrisome threat to the Bruins in the potential second round match-up.
Checking in as a No. 5 seed are the Virginia Tech Hokies who will square-off against No. 12 Illinois. The Hokies made a name for themselves during the regular season in stiff ACC play, which included two wins over North Carolina in addition to other quality conference victories. On the other hand, the Illini squeaked into the tourney at the last minute after playing reasonably well in February and making a Big 10 tournament semifinal run, while also posting a 1-6 record against nationally-ranked opponents. While most No. 5 vs. No. 12 games provide a prime opportunity for upsets, don't look for one here.
Southern Illinois storms onto the tournament scene as a No. 4 seed after winning 13-straight before losing to Creighton in the Mountain Valley Conference title game and is a definite favorite over Patriot League champion and No. 13-seeded Holy Cross, which lost both its games to ranked opponents and faced a fairly easy non-conference schedule. The Salukis are red hot and will have momentum on their side in their second-round contest against the winner of Virginia Tech-Illinois.
The squad from Durham might be the most vulnerable Duke team in recent memory, appearing shaky and inconsistent throughout the ACC regular season. Seeded sixth, the Blue Devils take on No. 11 VCU as CAA regular season and tournament victors. The Rams have captured five-consecutive games, while Duke dropped seven of its last 11, giving this matchup an air of upset.
Rounding out the bracket are No. 3 heavyweight Pittsburgh and No. 14 Wright State. The Panthers finished runners-up to Georgetown in the Big East regular season and conference tournament, going 12-4 in a solid league. Wright State claimed the Horizon League title and won 11 of its final 12, rendering this game a more competitive contest than one usually finds at No. 3 vs. No. 14. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh is a tough team and should have what it takes to advance to the Sweet Sixteen after dispatching the Raiders and the winner of Duke-VCU.
See tomorrow's Daily for full analysis of the East Rutherford and San Antonio regions.
