Since Governor Deval Patrick announced his proposal earlier this month for three casinos to be built throughout Massachusetts, it has been met with uncertainty by government officials in Medford and Somerville.
"I recognize that the commonwealth has a need for new revenues and I'm certainly willing to listen to the governor's plan and the data on which the governor's plan is based, but I'm extremely skeptical," State Rep. Denise Provost (D-Somerville) said. "I don't see that the governor's casino plan is positive for my district or for the commonwealth."
Patrick's proposal, which allows for the construction of three destination resort casinos, will theoretically create tens of thousands of jobs and billons of dollars in revenue to be used for road and bridge construction and repair as well as property tax relief for Massachusetts residents.
But is not yet clear what the effect, if any, of Patrick's plan will have on the areas surrounding Tufts' campus.
"Like so many things concerning the governor's proposal, whether or not it has a direct impact on the cities of Medford and Somerville remains to be seen," Somerville Communications Director Tom Champion said.
Regardless, local legislative members have raised a number of questions about it.
"I don't believe it's going to give us the revenue and job creation that it's argued to give us," said State Rep. Carl Sciortino (LA '00), who represents portions of both Medford and Somerville.
Provost predicts that casinos will also detract from informal gambling-related forms of fundraising in her district, such as church bingo games, and possibly hurt retailers that sell lottery tickets.
"I don't see it as new revenue so much as transfer of revenue," she said.
She is especially concerned with the affect casinos might have on the Massachusetts Lottery.
"Right now, the cities and towns in Massachusetts benefit tremendously from lottery revenue," she said. "Casinos are going to cut into lottery revenue."
Her concerns draw upon data she received last summer when a proposal to allow slot machines at racetracks came before the legislature. At that time, she received a report predicting a 15 percent decrease in lottery sales if the proposal passed (which it never did).
Associate Professor of Economics David Garman echoed her doubts.
"Anybody who's receiving lottery revenue right now should be concerned that the casinos will divert [it]," he said. "It's a real issue."
Because 351 towns and cities in the state received a combined $761 million in direct local aid last year from the Massachusetts State Lottery, that means that a lot of money could be at stake. Specifically, Somerville received $11,873,047 and Medford got $7,106,161.
But a study done specifically about Massachusetts by Christiansen Capital Advisors, a Maine-based industry that does gambling analysis, indicated that there might not be as big of a decline as some may fear.
The study found that "revenue would decline between three and eight percent initially, but within five years that number would rebound to previous levels," Dan Rosenfeld, a spokesman for the Massachusetts State Lottery, said.
According to Cyndi Roy, a spokesperson for the governor's office, Patrick's plan includes temporary funding to offset sale losses for the lottery.
Medford Mayor Michael McGlynn said that guaranteeing the lottery's financial wellbeing is just one aspect of the plan that needs to be clarified before he supports it.
He said he is also unsure of how the casinos would help cities and towns in other important areas, such as public safety and education.
"If we could see a substantial benefit to cities and towns then we would be supportive," he said. "But the way it's currently constructed - the proposal - I don't see a great benefit to [them]."
Patrick's proposal calls for one of the three casinos to be built in the metropolitan Boston area. According to Roy, the exact location of the casinos will be determined following a bidding process.
"It's too early to say right now," she said. "It depends on what the developers propose."
According to McGlynn, Medford will not be an option for developers looking in the Boston area.
"We wouldn't have a track of land that could house a casino," he said.
Somerville would have the land space necessary for such a building, but Champion said that Mayor Joseph Curtatone's administration does not want to see a casino built.
"We would discourage developers from a proposal that involves Somerville," he said. "Mayor Curtatone has said in the past publicly that he believes that casinos in densely populated urban areas create significant costs that outweigh their economic and tax revenue benefits."
Still, the proposal is not without its benefits. According to Garman, the most positive economic gain would come from the ability to compete with the two casinos in Connecticut, Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods.
"If no other adjacent states had casinos, I think it would be very foolish for Massachusetts to begin," he said. "The most beneficial part would be to contain the gambling revenues that are currently going to other states."
Garman also admired the bidding process put forth by the governor.
"Politically, the three-casino proposal with competitive bidding is brilliant," he said. "Because that puts the state in the position to maximize the payments it can get from the establishment of casinos."
