The four best teams in baseball all play in the American League.
Not only is the overall quality of play higher in the AL than it is in the National League, but the best teams in the AL dominated on a higher level than the NL's. Every AL playoff team has at least 94 wins; only one NL team has even reached 90.
That being said, we have every reason to expect some fantastic series in the AL. Not only are the Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels all very solid teams, but they are also very evenly matched. With that in mind, let's break down the two Division Series: Yankees versus Indians and Red Sox versus Angels.
First of all, who would have predicted that the Indians would tie for the best record in all of baseball? Because of their 19-9 September performance, the Indians hold a potentially huge advantage in their series against the Bronx Bombers: home-field advantage.
Both the Indians and the Yankees played far better at their respective home parks during the season than they did on the road. In fact, both teams had identical 52-29 home records, tied for second-best in all of baseball behind the Angels' 54-27 mark.
Both teams enter the postseason healthy and playing well. The Indians' strength is the top of their rotation. C.C. Sabathia may be the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young, and Fausto Carmona finished second in the AL in ERA. These men will start Games 1 and 2 at Jacobs Field. The Yankees will counter with their own righty-lefty punch of Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte. Wang's story at home is a magnified version of his team's; he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.91 ERA away from Yankee Stadium, compared to a 2.75 ERA at home.
The Indians hold a significant advantage in the first two games of the series due to their starting pitching and home-field advantage. However, if Cleveland hopes to win the series, it will likely need victories in both of these games. Games 3 and 4 will be started by Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd, with Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina likely opposing them. While Westbrook is no slouch, the Indians will have to out-slug the Yankees in order to win these games, something no team is likely to be able to do.
The final key to this series is the bullpen. Both bullpens have two dominant forces: Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez for Cleveland, and Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera for New York. Each 'pen also has several other adequate pieces: Jensen Lewis and Joe Borowski for the Tribe, and Luis Vizcaino and Kyle Farnsworth for the Yanks. How each manager deploys his bullpen could very well decide this series.
Eric Wedge has shown an irrational loyalty to "closer" Borowski, and Joe Torre has been reluctant to use Rivera in anything but save situations. These managerial tendencies could prove to be the downfall of either team.
By holding home-field advantage over the Angels, the Red Sox gain a vital advantage in their divisional series. Away from Anaheim, the Angels are actually below .500. However, another potential advantage - the top of the Sox's rotation, headed by Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka - could be negated by an even better one-two punch of John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. The top two pitchers will pitch four of the five games for each team, due to the fact that the five-game series will be played over eight days.
Both bullpens are remarkably similar, backed by dominant closers Jonathan Papelbon for the Sox and Francisco Rodriguez of the Angels and solid set-up men in Boston lefty Hideki Okajima and L.A.'s Scot Shields. The seventh inning could be crucial; whereas the Angels have another quality reliever, Justin Speier, to turn to, the Red Sox are left wondering whether they can afford to let Eric Gagne blow another lead.
Offensively, these teams could not be more different. The Red Sox rely on patience, drawing walks and forcing pitchers to throw a lot of pitches. This is very effective in general; however, will it work against dominating forces like Lackey, Escobar and Game 3 starter Jered Weaver?
The Angels, on the other hand, take few pitches and draw even fewer walks, relying on aggression both at the plate and on the basepaths to score runs. A more patient team would likely be able to take better advantage of Dice-K's control problems, but their aggression could allow them to score more easily off of Beckett and Game 3 starter Curt Schilling.
The most important factor in deciding these two series is luck. A best-of-five series is an extremely small sample size; just about anything can happen. Furthermore, there is so little separating these four teams to begin with that luck will have an even more prominent role than usual. With teams that are so evenly matched, the AL playoffs should provide high quality entertainment for baseball fans.
