A year ago, the National League playoffs began with four teams - one 97-game winner and three others that limped into October amid the lowest of expectations - vying for a spot in the 2006 World Series.
The New York Mets were the clear frontrunners to win the NL pennant, with only three pretenders, the St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, standing in their way. But as it turned out, the Cardinals, winners of just 83 regular-season games and, to all outward appearances, one of the worst teams ever to make a postseason, emerged to shock the Mets in a seven-game NLCS and ride that momentum straight to a victory parade in November.
This year, the postseason begins with none of the NL's usual suspects in the mix. The Arizona Diamondbacks came out of the NL West with the league's best record and home-field advantage for Game 1 against the Chicago Cubs, while the Colorado Rockies, who beat San Diego in a 13-inning playoff to take home the wild card, are headed east to take on the Philadelphia Phillies today.
Not one of the four teams looks like a World Series champion on paper, but then again, neither did St. Louis a year ago. So naturally, the question becomes: What team is this year's Cardinals?
The Phillies, who rallied from seven games back of New York earlier this month to take the East, could certainly make a case. They are the owners of the league's best offense for the second straight season, and they open at home with a Colorado team that should be exhausted.
Reigning MVP Ryan Howard posted a 1.043 OPS and 11 home runs in September, willing his team to the postseason, while shortstop Jimmy Rollins rounded out his career year with 14 steals, six homers, five triples and four doubles for the month, completing his impressive 20-20-20-20 campaign. The Phillies' offense has never been stronger, but their 4.50 bullpen ERA is among the league's worst, and that won't get any better when the series moves to hitter-friendly Coors Field.
The Rockies head into the postseason as the hottest team in baseball, having won 14 of their last 15. Matt Holliday turned in an MVP-caliber season, hitting a league-best .340, while Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe led an excellent supporting cast. But just like the Phillies, the Rockies have a questionable pitching staff, as it remains to be seen whether Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook and Josh Fogg form a reliable playoff rotation.
The Cubs have the best pitching staff of the four teams, to which their 4.04 staff ERA can attest. Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill should all be solid playoff starters, and while Ryan Dempster leaves a little to be desired in the closer role, 24-year-old Carlos Marmol is the best setup man you've never heard of.
The Cubs have the ultimate intangible on their side this October: it's their last chance to avoid a 100-year World Series drought, as they continue to search for their first title since 1908. But intangibles might not be enough against Arizona, owner of the league's best record - especially when the Cubs face the daunting task of hitting against ace Brandon Webb twice in a short series.
The Diamondbacks' lineup features a strong young nucleus of Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds and Chris Young, infused with the veteran leadership of breakout star Eric Byrnes. Their league-best 90 wins this season were somewhat of an enigma, given that their offense is the league's third-worst - most of the youngsters aren't quite ready to be major league stars.
But this year's D-Backs have featured a strong bullpen and a knack for winning close games, which might mean they have exactly what it takes to find October success. As manager Bob Melvin looks for his first postseason win and the Cubs look for their third-ever World Series title, it should be an interesting October. With parity like this, anything can happen.
