The Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees, the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers: at least one of these teams will not make the playoffs. So who is going to be left out?
First, we must make a crucial assumption: namely, no other team will compete for the wildcard. This is probably going to be true - besides the Angels, no AL team seems to be as good as the Big Four, although the Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays could all make the races interesting if a few things go their way.
If we subscribe to this assumption, then we will see that, essentially, three playoff spots are available for these four teams: Two will go to respective division winners, and one of the second-place teams will win the wild card.
But who will it be?
The Red Sox and Indians, the best two teams in baseball last year, remained essentially the same, making virtually no offseason moves. Given the youth on their rosters and the quality of their farm systems, both of these teams should once again be very strong.
Consider that although each team won 96 games last year, both can boast several areas of likely improvement. For the Red Sox, Daisuke Matsuzaka is likely to improve, Julian Tavarez is unlikely to pitch 134 innings again and Jacoby Ellsbury should be better than Coco Crisp was last year. For the Indians, Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are both likely to improve, the team cannot possibly get less production from their second basemen than they did last year and the bullpen should be deeper and better than it was in 2007.
Certainly, both teams will regress in some areas. Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Indian southpaw Fausto Carmona are unlikely to repeat last year's stellar respective performances, for example. But both teams have enough star-power and depth to weather any problems they might face.
The Tigers made several significant offseason moves, acquiring Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria and what remains of Dontrelle Willis without giving up anyone important off of their major league roster. Their offense is tremendous, although Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco and Renteria are all due for some regression.
Detroit's pitching staff, however, remains very questionable: Justin Verlander is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but the other four starters are either very inconsistent (Jeremy Bonderman), consistently mediocre (Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson) or consistently bad (Willis).
Detroit's bullpen is in even worse shape.Todd Jones looks like he might be done, Joel Zumaya is hurt and may never be the same when he returns, and the only other decent reliever in the pen - Fernando Rodney - is also on the shelf at the moment.
If the Tigers are going to make the playoffs, they will need an exceptional performance from their offense or a better-than-expected performance from several pitchers. Or both.
The Yankees are a very interesting team because they are the least predictable of the Big Four. That said, the offense will be solid as usual, though Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada will regress from their incredibly good seasons last year.
Meanwhile, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui are unlikely to improve and, given their age, more likely to begin or continue declining. Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera could improve but not enough to offset the regression from the rest of the offense.
While the bats will remain true to form, they won't be enough to overcome mediocre pitching. The Yanks, therefore, will need the kids to step up in a big way. Between Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, there is tremendous potential; New York could be the best team in baseball. But given how relatively unproven this triumvirate is - and given the Yankees' weak bullpen and lack of rotation depth - the Yankees could also easily be on the outside looking in come October.
The key, however, to the playoff equation may not lie within any of the individual teams. Rather, the most important aspect might be the divisions. Because of the unbalanced schedule, teams play division rivals 19 times throughout the year. While the Yankees and Red Sox will compete in 19 games against the hapless Baltimore Orioles, arguably baseball's worst team, they will also have to battle with the Rays and Blue Jays, two of the top 10 teams in baseball, 38 times each. Meanwhile, the Indians and Tigers get a total of 57 games apiece against three teams - the Kansas City Royals, the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins - who are all unlikely to finish over .500. The difference in scheduling could work in favor of the Indians and Tigers regardless of whether they are actually better than their AL East counterparts, simply because the Central clubs will have many more winnable games on their schedule than the Red Sox and Yankees.
