The story of the National League playoffs starts with an intriguing Chicago Cubs-Los Angeles Dodgers matchup in the Divisional Series. And the story of the Cubs starts with their pitching staff, potentially the deepest in the Senior Circuit.
Just one year ago, Game 1 starter Ryan Dempster was languishing as one of the most unreliable closers in the league. In the offseason, he became a starter and added a wrist twist in his windup that prevents him from tipping his pitches. As a result, he has a 2.96 ERA on the year, only once allowing more than four runs in a game, earning himself a spot on the All-Star team.
Carlos Zambrano, though no maestro at painting the corners, continues to have some of the best stuff in the league. He rarely goes a game without issuing multiple free passes, but his stuff alone can be enough, as evidenced by his no-hitter on Sept. 14.
The most impressive thing about the Cubs' pitching, however, is that their prized mid-season acquisition, Rich Harden, is their third starter. Since coming over from the Oakland Athletics, Harden has gone 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a crazy 12.1 K/9. The only problem is the high pitch counts that result from his strikeouts, as he has made it through seven innings only three times with Chicago.
In the bullpen, Carlos Marmol led the relievers with 114 strikeouts, while Kerry Wood recorded 34 saves. But his six blown saves, along with his troubling September (6.75 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) are warning signs that October will be far from smooth sailing.
On the offensive side, the Cubs have a decent but potentially overrated lineup. Alfonso Soriano is an electric leadoff hitter, though his patience and playoff record are lacking (103:43 K:BB this season, .225 postseason average). Derek Lee is a strong hitter with a World Series ring, and his peripherals are solid, but his .823 OPS does not exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Aramis Ramirez is better, averaging 31 homers and 105 RBI over the past five years, but he's still not the type of hitter that can carry an offense (a la Albert Pujols or Manny Ramirez).
The Dodgers will have their work cut out for them, but they have talent of their own. Ramirez is the biggest name on the team and for good reason: The Dodgers have gone 30-24 with him, including a 17-8 September, while Manny himself has hit .396 with a 38:35 K:BB ratio and a 1.232 OPS (and he went 2-for-2 in steals!). But they have other hitters too.
Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, two exceptional young outfielders, lead the group with their outstanding numbers and peripherals. They both have high batting averages (.290 and .305) and high batting averages on balls in play (.361 and .330; league average is about .300), but the explanation is not luck.
Matt Kemp is one of the faster players in the league, stealing 35 bases at a 76.1 percent success rate, meaning he can run out hits that other players can't. Ethier, meanwhile, sports a 26.6 line-drive percentage -- good for the highest in the National League. Line drives go for hits about 75 percent of the time, whereas ground balls are well below 50, and fly balls are below 10.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers are very much overlooked. Derek Lowe, their Game 1 starter, has performed well in the postseason (four wins, 3.34 ERA) and has been incredibly consistent since arriving in Los Angeles four years ago (he's never posted an ERA above 3.88 or a WHIP above 1.27). This year, he's put together one of his strongest statistical seasons in Dodger blue, sporting a 3.55 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.
Complementing Lowe on the Dodgers staff is Chad "Dolla Dolla" Billingsley. Despite starting the season with a 5.20 ERA in April, Billingsley has gone 15-6 since then, posting a 2.99 ERA after the All-Star break. Although Billingsley's erratic control can get him into problems (his WHIP after the break was an unappealing 1.37), he counters it with an ability to dominate hitters that is reminiscent of a younger CC Sabathia.
The strongest point of the Dodgers team, however, might be the bullpen. In addition to having Greg Maddux and Clayton Kershaw -- arguably the most accomplished pitcher and the best pitching prospect in the game, respectively -- available whenever needed, the Dodgers have an unrivaled one-two-three punch of Hong-Chih Kuo, Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton (sporting K/9 rates of 11.5, 11.8 and 12.0, respectively) in the final innings.
In the other series, after competing for the wild card spot and potentially the final spot in the National League playoffs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies now face each other as they try to advance to the NLCS. Phillies fans will be happy to know that as a division winner, they have home-field advantage to start the five-game series, though Brewers fans will take solace in the fact that since the institution of the wild card and the divisional series, the wild card team has advanced past the first round in seven out of 11 years.
Although this matchup contains some of the most notable MVP candidates of the past couple of years -- Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun -- it promises to be a pitchers' battle, at least until the later innings. While the Brewers sport two aces in Sabathia and Ben Sheets, it is their third, lesser known ace that will be starting Game 1: former phenom Yovani Gallardo.
Gallardo posted a solid rookie campaign last year with a 3.67 ERA and 1.27 WHIP but tore a knee ligament to start the year. On his return last Thursday, he struck out seven and allowed one run but only lasted four innings. His performance will be critical to the Brewers' success, especially considering the state of their bullpen: Their closer is Salomon Torres (1.35 WHIP and 1.55 K/BB).
On the Phillies' side, they will send out the rarely-talked-about Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels in Game 1. At 24 years of age, Hamels' fastball-change-up combo continues to devastate hitters to the tune of a 3.08 ERA and a league-leading 1.08 WHIP.
After Hamels it gets questionable, however, as the Phillies will use enigma Brett Myers. Myers posted a 5.84 ERA before the break, got sent down to Triple-A, then came back up and dominated with a 2.25 ERA in July and 1.65 ERA in August. But in his past 8.1 innings pitched, Myers has allowed 14 runs, meaning he is perhaps the biggest variable in this series.
