At the outset of this baseball offseason, it looked like it was going to be a different year from most others. With the economy in shambles, many people were left wondering how it would affect baseball and the free agent market. When almost no free agents inked deals at the beginning of the signing period -- a stark contrast to previous years, in which midnight agreements were struck on the first day and the following weeks were characterized by flurries of moves from almost every team -- the answer seemed to have arrived.
And while it's undoubtedly true that the economy has had a severe impact on free agency and the dollar figures received by mid-to-lower-tier free agents, on the surface of this year's hot stove, things aren't really all that different. The New York Yankees signed the biggest free agents (CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett) to top-dollar contracts, the Boston Red Sox agreed to shrewd, incentive-laden deals with a number of high-potential free agents (Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli), and the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs weren't afraid to throw around their money in order to address positions of need (Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz in New York, Milton Bradley and Ryan Dempster in Chicago).
But with a little more than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, there's a lot more to be decided than whether Roger Clemens will return or where Kyle Lohse will end up pitching. In fact, there are still plenty of names out there that can help immediate contenders and rebuilding squads alike, not to mention the several fading Hall-of-Famers looking for another go-around in The Show. Let's take a look at where they all will end up:
Manny Ramirez: Clearly the best free agent still available, Manny's value is lower than anyone would expect for a player coming off a season in which he hit .332 with a 1.031 OPS. Because of years of turmoil in Boston and the way things ended with the Red Sox -- Manny claimed a knee injury, was threatened with a suspension when an MRI revealed nothing, then suddenly enjoyed a miraculous recovery from said injury before being traded and mashing with the Los Angeles Dodgers -- nobody wants to take a risk on a guy who won't even run out ground balls. The fact that Manny's looking for a four- or five-year deal worth an annual $25 million doesn't help either, and with the Yankees shelling out big bucks for Teixeira and the Red Sox obviously not interested, Manny doesn't have a whole lot of options. The Dodgers have made a standing two-year, $45 million offer, and while the San Francisco Giants have been rumored to be interested, it is likely just an attempt from agent Scott Boras to gain some leverage. So, in the end, Manny will probably be wearing Dodger blue once more. That is, of course, unless he's serious about hanging them up if he doesn't get a $100 million contract. Could there be a more fitting end to a career of "Manny being Manny?"
Ben Sheets: Arguably the most adversely affected by the economy, Sheets is somehow still looking for a job despite posting a 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.36 K/BB in 198 innings last year. While teams have given ill-advised multi-year contracts to the likes of Carl Pavano and Carlos Silva in years past, they are being much more careful with their assets this time around. Even though Sheets clearly has the ability to perform like an ace, his injury history has scared off a number of potential suitors. The Texas Rangers are the only team known to be interested, kicking the tires on a one-year deal, and while Sheets wants at least two years, he may end up having to take the one, particularly after losing leverage following the Yankees' re-signing of Andy Pettitte. Still, don't be surprised if someone else comes in and agrees to an additional guaranteed year with the 30-year-old righty. The Red Sox still have plenty of money, and this is just the type of high-reward signing they like to make.
Jake Peavy: Even though he is not technically a free agent, Peavy's days with the San Diego Padres appear to be numbered. The team has already cut payroll by not re-signing franchise icon Trevor Hoffman, and this offseason has been pervaded by whispers of Peavy's departure. The Cubs were long rumored to be interested, with a deal at times looking inevitable, but compatibility problems with the Padres and questions about the Cubs' ownership nixed the possibility of such a deal. However, with the likely sale of the team to investment banker Tom Ricketts and the subtle moves that the Cubs have made -- dumping salary by trading Jason Marquis and Mark DeRosa and acquiring a pitching prospect the Padres covet in southpaw Garrett Olson -- such a deal again appears likely.
Adam Dunn: Perhaps the most underrated free agent out there. It's hard to understand why nobody appears interested in Dunn. He wants a four-year, $56 million contract, but some believe he may only be able to get $5 million per season. If that's truly the case, then any team that gets Dunn will have a tremendous bargain on its hands. Sure, he's a statue in the field and the notion that he can make contact at will is laughable (he once went 1,085 plate appearances without a sacrifice fly), but Dunn has hit at least 40 homers for five consecutive years and his career OBP of .381 is outstanding. The problem is, Dunn is best suited to the DH spot, but no competitive American League team needs him. Expect more suitors to emerge as Dunn's price falls, but don't expect him to sign more than a one-year deal if his value drops that low. He'll want another crack at the market next year when free agent pickings are slimmer and the economy might be better.
The draft pick prisoners: Several players on the market have quality baseball skills at affordable prices, but there's just one problem: signing one of these players requires handing over a compensatory draft pick to his former team. Thus, players such as Orlando Hudson, Jason Varitek, Juan Cruz and Orlando Cabrera still find themselves unemployed. Varitek will probably sign by this weekend, as the Red Sox have set a deadline on their offer and he has no other suitors, but the future of the rest of this group remains up in the air. Cruz could be appealing as another bullpen arm to the Yankees, who would only have to surrender a fourth-round pick because of their other free agent signings, while the Braves could have interest in the Orlandos, as Kelly Johnson's defense at second base is sub-par and the team already lost a first-round pick by signing Derek Lowe. Still, at least one of these players could still be jobless come spring training. It will be interesting to see if someone waits until after the June draft, when compensation no longer applies, to sign a contract.
The Hall of Famers: Yes, they're old, but the list of unsigned potential Hall of Famers still out there is mind-boggling: Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Ken Griffey, Jr., Frank Thomas and Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. Even free agents Jim Edmonds and Bobby Abreu could be classified in this group. Glavine is likely to re-up with the Braves, especially after the Smoltz debacle, and Pedro and Abreu will find jobs somewhere, but for the rest of these guys, unemployment this season is a real possibility. Any offered contract will be so low that these established stars might view it as an insult. One of the sad things about sports is how players rarely leave on their own terms and can be pushed out of the games they love: for every Greg Maddux, there are 10 Mike Piazzas. And it looks like this year, there could be a lot of Piazzas.
