Over the past two weeks, brackets have been busted, dreams have been crushed and memories have been made. Now, with the matchups set, the college basketball season enters its final, and what may very well be its finest, weekend.
The Final Four, which begins tomorrow night in Detroit, features two No. 1 seeds, the UConn Huskies and the North Carolina Tar Heels — both of which have spent time during the regular season ranked No. 1 in the country — in addition to a nitty-gritty, physical No. 2 seed in the Michigan State Spartans and the buzzer-beating No. 3-seeded Villanova Wildcats. Every team but the Wildcats has won a national championship this decade.
Perhaps the most talented team in the country, UNC starts four future NBA first-round picks in senior Tyler Hansbrough, junior Ty Lawson, junior Wayne Ellington and senior Danny Green. Along with freshman Deon Thompson, the Tar Heels boast a starting lineup in which all five players average double digits in scoring. Any one of these players would be the No. 1 scoring option on any other team; it is simply impossible to keep all five from finding their rhythm.
Even with Ellington having his first single-digit scoring effort since Dec. 28 and Hansbrough getting in early foul trouble, UNC still maintained a double-digit cushion throughout the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners in the Elite Eight, largely thanks to Lawson and Green.
While Green has played a solid tourney after a dismal display in the ACC Tournament, Lawson has been the key to UNC's success. The owner of the most-discussed toe in sports, he has averaged a shade over 20 points per game in the three contests he's played and boasts an astounding 10:1 assist to turnover ratio. The ACC Player of the Year shoots 48.5 percent from three but is most dangerous leading a fast break. As he showed last weekend — and no doubt will display once again against Villanova — he is the fastest player on the court, and he has the ability to dart to the rim for a layup or penetrate and then kick to Ellington or Green, both spot-on three-point shooters.
It will be a difficult task for the Wildcats to slow down the second highest-scoring team in the country. Led by junior guard Scottie Reynolds, whose last-second shot against the Pittsburgh Panthers has been arguably the most memorable moment of the tournament so far, Villanova will need to slow down the pace of the game if it wants to advance to the final.
With their three-guard set, the Wildcats will rely on the play of senior Dante Cunningham. If the 6'8" forward gets his mid-range shot going early, Hansbrough will be forced to defend him further from the basket, which should open lanes to the basket for the guards. With UNC's height advantage, Villanova will need to work hard to keep the Tar Heels off the offensive glass while also trying to scrap for its own second-chance points. Having already beaten Pitt, the Duke Blue Devils and the UCLA Bruins, the Wildcats have shown they can play with any team.
If UNC is the most talented team, then UConn is a close second. For all the Huskies' veteran talent, however, it was Kemba Walker, their freshman guard, who led them to the Final Four. Walker was the most poised player on the court in the closing minutes of the game against the Missouri Tigers and ended up as the game's leading scorer with 23 points. On a night when UConn sank just two of 12 three-pointers and committed 17 turnovers, it needed every ounce of Walker's energy to advance.
While the Huskies have come this far in the tournament without the best efforts of junior Hasheem Thabeet, UConn will need its star big man to produce more on offense if it wants to win a national championship. The 7'3" center scored just five points against Missouri and failed to block a single shot. If he finds a rhythm inside and reemerges as the beast on the defensive end he has been all season, UConn will be tough to stop.
In senior Goran Suton, however, Michigan State might have the ability to nullify Thabeet's abilities. The Spartan center, no slouch himself at 6'10", knocked down three treys in the Elite Eight matchup with the Louisville Cardinals. As with Villanova's Cunningham, if Suton is hitting shots from outside, it could create matchup nightmares for UConn, potentially forcing Thabeet to defend Suton further out from the basket or making the Huskies play zone.
If the Spartans choose the latter, that could leave sophomore guards Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers open along the perimeter. Against Louisville, they took full advantage of open looks, combining to hit four three-pointers. Michigan State will look to slow the game down to compel UConn to play half-court offense, which will emphasize the physical game. If the Spartans can force the Huskies into foul trouble — something no team has yet been able to do — the game could change considerably, as UConn sticks to a seven-man rotation and has very little experience from anyone else on the bench.
If the trends of the tournament continue, UConn and UNC will meet for Monday night's final. But the NCAA Tournament rarely follows any logic. It may not be March anymore, but there is still time for madness.
