This time last year, the New York Yankees were missing out on October baseball for the first time since Derek Jeter was a teenager. But it sure didn't take Joe Girardi's squad too long to turn things around.
In the span of a season, the Yankees went from barely holding off the Toronto Blue Jays for third place in the AL East to running away with one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. They crossed the 100-win mark for the first time since 2004, posted the best regular-season record in MLB and, heading into tonight's divisional round opener against the Minnesota Twins, are the clear-cut favorite to represent the American League in the World Series.
So how did the Yankees go from being left out of the playoffs to a serious World Series contender in the span of one season? A look at three factors responsible for the Bronx Bombers' turnaround:
1. Chien-Ming who? A year ago, right-hander Chien-Ming Wang's season-ending injury dealt a debilitating blow to the Yankees' starting rotation. A team whose Opening Day starting rotation featured two rookies (Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy) and two veterans on the wrong side of 35 (Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina) was counting on its two-time 19-game winner to anchor its pitching staff.
But when Wang hurt his right foot running the bases in an interleague game against the Houston Astros in 2008, the Yankees' starting staff, already forced to overcome injuries to Hughes and Kennedy, crumbled for good. Woeful reinforcements like Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson wound up pitching nearly 200 combined innings for the Bombers.
Slowed by shoulder fatigue, Wang gave the Yankees even less in 2009: one win, just 42 innings and a career-worst 9.64 ERA.
This time, however, losing the 2006 Cy Young runner-up was far less catastrophic for the Yankees. By inking big-ticket free agents CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for a total $243.5 million in the offseason, General Manager Brian Cashman had already upgraded the depth of his club's starting staff.
When the Yankees got a major bounce-back season from Pettitte, the sting of losing Wang faded away. Even without its Taiwanese star, New York had three formidable starting pitchers — all of whom stayed healthy enough to make at least 32 starts — to carry it through the season. As a result, Wang's injury became a mere afterthought, far from the backbreaker it was a year ago.
2. Law of averages. Thanks to some key injuries and a great deal of ineffectiveness, the Yankees received below-average production at several positions in 2008. With five-time All-Star Jorge Posada limited to just 51 games last season with shoulder problems, automatic-out Jose Molina, a career .235/.277/.322 hitter, made most of the starts behind the plate.
Up the middle, second baseman Robinson Cano posted a dismal .305 on-base percentage that reminded no one of his pint-sized counterpart from the Boston Red Sox, MVP Dustin Pedroia, while Jeter managed just 88 runs scored, his fewest since a 2003 campaign in which he played only 119 games. In addition, Melky Cabrera was so ineffective that the Yankees got some of the worst center field offensive production in the American League.
So, if there was ever such a thing as the law of averages, the Yankees were due for rebound seasons from at least four positions, which is precisely what happened.
With Posada back in the fold, the Yankees went from getting eight home runs from the catcher position in 2008 to 22 in 2009. Cano rebounded to hit .320 this year — or 15 points higher than his putrid 2008 OBP — and Jeter remained in the MVP discussion throughout the season by putting together a remarkable .334/.406/.465 this year. In centerfield, meanwhile, Cabrera and speedster Brett Gardner combined for 16 home runs, 91 RBIs and 36 stolen bases.
The results: an offense that was held under three runs 50 times a year ago transformed into arguably the best in baseball, leading the major leagues in runs scored, home runs, slugging percentage and on-base percentage. There's no doubt that the offseason acquisitions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher aided the offense's cause, but the rejuvenation of those around them gave the Yankees a legitimate hitting threat at each spot in their everyday lineup.
3. Luck. The Yankees performed atypically well in the latter innings this season, with as many walk-off wins — 15 — as they had amassed the two previous years combined. Some of the game-winning hits came from the unlikeliest of sources; Cabrera had three by the end of May, while late-season call-ups Francisco Cervelli and Juan Miranda followed with their own in September. Other Yankees walk-off wins came courtesy of a dropped Luis Castillo pop-up on June 12 and a meatball to Alex Rodriguez from Junichi Tazawa, who was asked to make his major league debut in the pressure cooker of a scoreless, 15-inning Yankees-Red Sox duel.
There is much debate about whether hitting in crucial moments is a skill, but regardless, it's safe to say that a whole lot more went right for the Yankees late in games this season than for other teams. New York led the majors with 51 come-from-behind victories and played to a .650 winning percentage in games decided by two runs or less. As a result, the Yankees performed eight games better than what was projected by Bill James' Pythagorean win-loss formula.
But in order to continue this success throughout the playoffs, New York will have to continue receiving production from unlikely sources, both on the mound and at the plate — in addition to getting a little more luck on their side.
