I was, for a while, unsure of what to put in this column. I could have expounded on the meaning of life, the merits of self-actualization or perhaps the importance of watching sunsets. I could have focused on something that has irked me throughout my time at Tufts and written a scathing condemnation of it for all the graduating class and its parents to see — yeah, that would've shown them, all right.
But doling out advice on Commencement Day is for Professor Sol Gittleman, not me. Option number two sounded appealing, but as much as I cannot stand the idea of trayless dining or this school's infatuation with fighting poverty in Senegal before first fighting it down the street in Somerville, controversy didn't seem particularly appealing. Besides, as a politico, it made sense to keep the last column to politics — but with a slight twist.
In the last four years, our college years, we have seen majorly transformative moments in our shared political history — from the 2008 presidential election to the popping of the housing bubble, to say a lot has happened would be a minor understatement. Our world has been dramatically and forever changed over the past four years. Here's a look ahead at the next four.
O-my
The presidency can be an eight-year appointment, for those who weren't already aware. That George W. Bush could be re-elected in 2004 after leading the United States into a hotly contested war with Iraq is proof that Americans crave continuity — and really dislike Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). Given that three of the four presidents before Barack Obama served two terms in office, the trend most certainly exists. Factor in that charismatic Obama is competing against a listless Republican party, and the formula for re-election is clear. If there is a group that could screw something this easy up, however, it is the Democrats.
Lincoln's losers
Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele was not appointed to run the RNC because of his political or managerial aptitude, and that has made itself evident time and time again over the past few years. The Republicans are in a distressingly bad situation, with Sarah Palin's minions threatening to hijack the party of Lincoln and reduce it to political irrelevance. The Republicans will not fare that well at the polls this fall or in 2012. America, for its part, believes the political narrative that the issues facing the country are the fault of the Republicans. They are angry with the Democrats for not fixing them immediately, but angrier, it seems, with the Republicans. Republicans will pick up a few seats and draw the gap closer, but Democrats will still have massive majorities in both the House and Senate.
Better-ish
The economy will get better, just very slowly. That said, it will not get better for everyone at the same rate — manufacturing jobs that disappeared will take a long time to come back, if at all. The stock market and GDP metrics will improve before we see a real impact on job growth. By 2014, the economy will be healthier for most — and back-to-normal for the Class of 2010 — but still lagging for those in manufacturing and construction.
More of the same
In 2014, there will be no comprehensive immigration solution, global warming will still be contested — and nothing will have been done about it — and health care reform will either be pushed back another few years or entirely disbanded. The U.S. government will still be running a massive deficit looking to grow only further.
The very idea of 2014 seems ridiculous, but given that 2006 happened only a blink or two ago, the next four years will fly by. Congratulations to my fellow graduates, and thank you for the wonderful memories. Now put down the paper and listen to the person on stage.
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Teddy Minch graduates today with a degree in political science. He hosted "The Rundown," a talk show from 3 to 5 p.m. every Friday on WMFO. He can be reached at Theodore.Minch@tufts.edu.
