Opinion
September 9
In the midst of the summer of our discontent over President Obama's proposed healthcare reforms, there has been an explosion of violence in Iraq. With the continued re-deployment of U.S. forces from Iraqi cities to fire bases in the countryside and the gradual removal of combat brigades to Afghanistan, Iraq has witnessed a massive spike in bloodshed over the past few weeks. Bombings in Baghdad and in Kurdish areas in northern Iraq have killed over 200 people and wounded over a thousand. U.S. commanders and politicians are keen to use the phrase, "When the Iraqis step up, we will step down," but it remains to be seen if Iraqi forces can act in a proactive, offensive manner, putting aside ethnic and religious divides for the good of a unified Iraqi government.
Much has been made in political circles of the gains made through the Petraeus Plan, the surge which stabilized Iraq after its chaotic period of sectarian strife and which turned previously hostile Sunni elements against Al-Qaeda in Iraq. These gains have been substantial. With the training of Iraqi security forces, they should be able to handle a greater share of the burden. For all the successes in counterinsurgency, Iraq still has not developed the civil society, infrastructure and institutions that would lead to a modern country. In comparison to other American occupations, namely the occupations of Germany and Japan post-World War II, there was a greater emphasis on nation building. Iraq is a very different case. Both Germany and Japan have relatively homogeneous populations, with very few religious or ethnic minorities.
Iraq was formed in the aftermath of World War I as the British Mandate of Mesopotamia. The British ruled Iraq through a puppet, King Faisal, and when the British withdrew, Faisal declared the Kingdom of Iraq. Faisal and the British began a policy of using the minority Sunnis to rule the country at the expense of the majority Shiites and ethnic Kurds. In Iraq, during the rule of Saddam Hussein, the trend continued with the minority Baath party ruling over the country's three main ethnic groups: Sunni Arab, Shia and Kurds, along with countless other minorities. Hussein held the country together by sheer cruelty, quelling rebellions of the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north. When Hussein was forced from power, the lingering hatred between the main ethnic factions made the rebuilding and the development of civil institutions and the division of oil revenues very difficult because each of the respective groups has its own ethnic interests at hand and not the interests of a federal government in Baghdad.
In the days after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Coalition Provisional Authority, headed by Paul Bremer, disbanded the Iraqi army and fired the Iraqi ministrial staff. By doing so, Bremer essentially took the people who had the best grasp of the inner workings of Iraqi society and replaced them with pro-American administrators, many of whom were returning exiles. The main American-backed replacements were predominantly Shiite elements who had great contempt for the former Sunni rulers and were allied with Iranian interests.
U.S. authorities were negligent in the period following the toppling of Hussein, and the development of the Iraqi economy was rife with corruption and mismanagement. But as the violence has calmed down, the economy in Iraq has improved. There have been steps to open the markets in Iraq, such as the privatization of all state-owned enterprises. During the fiscal year of 2008, the Iraqi economy grew at 6.6 percent, driven primarily by oil exports. Iraq does face serious problems, though, the largest being its extremely high unemployment rate, hovering at around 30 percent. If the Iraqi government can increase job creation and diversify its economy beyond oil-related products, then the country will benefit in the long term and not be subject to fluctuations in oil prices. Like everything else in Iraq, the long-term growth of the Iraqi economy depends on the active sharing in economic development of all parties involved, which still has not happened.
As American security forces begin to withdraw from Iraq, the task falls to the Iraqis to provide the security and the development needed to govern their country. Currently, there are more questions than answers about Iraq's ability to govern itself. Real progress in Iraq will happen only when the Iraqi people reconcile their past differences and build a strong economy and an active civil society, free of sectarian strife. If this happens, it will be due to the Iraqi people stepping up to the plate and leading the reconciliation among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.
