The term "surge" has been, well, surging in popularity this year. Once the label attached itself to the Bush administration's plan to increase the number of troops stationed in Iraq, all anyone could talk about was the surge. Was the surge working? How long would the surge last?
Well, anyone watching Iowa over the past couple of weeks has probably noticed another surge.
Iowa, of course, is the first caucus in the nation for both parties in the nomination process. Its importance is huge for every candidate, eclipsed (perhaps) only by New Hampshire's primary a week later.
Do well in Iowa, and you've hit the jackpot. Donors flock to your campaign, the media runs flattering stories about you, and voters in later primaries are suddenly very interested in voting for you. A win in Iowa can sometimes propel you forward with enough momentum to capture the nomination.
In 2004, John Kerry was given little chance to win the Democratic nomination. Howard Dean was seen as unstoppable.
Then Iowa happened. Kerry's organization pulled off a stunning upset win and Dean came in a disappointing third place and never recovered. Kerry used his momentum from that win to take New Hampshire and the eventual nomination.
So it is a very big deal when former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee rockets out of nowhere to steal the lead in Iowa from Mitt Romney. Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher, went on to govern Arkansas with a mixture of evangelical rhetoric and economic populism. He's a southern-fried, deeply religious, impressively charismatic campaigner with a speaking ability sharpened from years at the church pulpit. Think Bill Clinton if he were a Republican.
He's also leading in several polls of Iowa, clawing from below 5 percent in the summer to over 26 percent now.
The astonishing thing is that he's done it on a shoestring budget, relying on word of mouth and dogged campaigning. Mitt Romney has spent $7 million dollars in Iowa alone, hired hundreds of organizers and canvassers, and flooded the airwaves with campaign commercials. He practically lives in Iowa so he can go to every pancake breakfast or local fair.
And, inch by inch, he had moved ahead of Giuliani, Thompson and McCain in this critical state, to the point where he was, until recently, the "inevitable" winner of Iowa.
Huckabee, in contrast, has spent a mere $370,000 in Iowa, and has only now started to run commercials. That he could turn his nickels and dimes into a base of support larger than Romney's is deeply troubling to the Romney campaign, which has spent a fortune to get where it is today.
And while all this is going on, the Giuliani campaign is laughing its heads off. Giuliani's strategy of waiting until Super Tuesday, when big urban states he excels in hold their primaries, is dependent on Romney not getting too powerful from early-state wins.
If I were a Giuliani strategist right now, I'd seriously consider helping get the Huckabee campaign some cash. The way forward for Rudy is to have Huckabee and Romney beat the tar out of each other in the early, more rural states, denying each other momentum, then run the table on the large urban states that come later. I've been doubtful that his strategy would work, but now that Huckabee's giving Romney grief, it just might.
Michael Sherry is a junior majoring in poltical science. He can be reached at michael.sherry@tufts.edu.
