The NBA's Western Conference has ten teams with records above .500. The East has five. The West has at least three title contenders, the East essentially none. The West has centers, the East has none.
And Pat Riley, who used to coach out West and did a pretty good job of it, is struggling mightily to keep his Miami Heat above water after a devastating injury to center Alonzo Mourning seemingly destroyed any lofty hopes the decorated NBA coach may have had about this season. But in this year's East, anything can happen, and don't be surprised if Riley and company turn things around.
I thought the Heat would have remained one of the East's top teams, even without Zo, because a) they've still got some prime-time scorers, b) they've got a coach who is an old hand at overcoming adversity, and c) the competition in the conference is simply not very good. While all that looks promising on paper, though, the Heat are 7-10 and have not put together more than two consecutive wins through the first month of the season. Miami has lost eight of its 12 games against above-.500 teams, and Riley comes off his first losing November ever (6-9).
The team added Brian Grant, Eddie Jones, and Anthony Mason this off-season to an already talent-laden roster that included Mourning and Tim Hardaway. But with Mourning, plus Dan Majerle on the sidelines, the team is struggling, even though the new guys are getting their job done. Jones is averaging 18 a night, Grant chips in 17 and 11 rebounds, Mason puts up 14 and eight boards, and even an injured Hardaway is one of the best floor generals in the league.
Talent, it would seem, is not the issue here. Sure, the Heat lacks its best player, and does not have an overly stocked bench (A.C. Green, Duane Causwell, Bruce Bowen). But it has three potential All-Stars, which, if anything, should at least guarantee it an above-.500 season. Riley has four players scoring 13 or more, the Heat have held opponents to under 86 points a night, third-best in the league, while sending a proven player to the court at every position but center (although Grant sometimes plays the middle with Bowen at the four), which is not supposed to matter because there are no centers in the East this season. What does this mean?
The Heat will get better, and it may even still compete for an Atlantic division title.
A closer look at the schedule reveals that six of Miami's ten losses have come by single digits, and five of those have come by two points or less. The team is 3-2 against sub-.500 squads, which doesn't mean much unless you consider that, while November brought only five games against lowly teams, December's schedule will be quite the breather. The team will play just seven games against above-.500 teams, and two of those will come against the Denver Nuggets.
Give Riley's players some time to gel more - he's a master at helping that along - and three of his four leading scorers have been with the team for just a month. Zo would have not only provided the offensive and defensive punch, he would have been the focal point of the unacquainted offense, taking some pressure off the whole "need for chemistry" thing. But without the big man, what you've got is some very good starters who are capable of carrying this team, but need a little more time to do it.
That, of course, doesn't mean the team can get by without a bench, and Miami brought in Cedric Ceballos last week to help rectify that problem. The troubled forward hopes to see some minutes on a team that has heavily relied on its starting group, and if he plays consistently and stays in the coach's good graces, he can be a big help.
In the Heat's most recent game, a three-point win over Washington, Riley's starters each played at least 34 minutes, and only two of his bench players saw time at all. When the team topped the Knicks last week, the starters again played almost the entire game, with Ceballos getting ten minutes and Anthony Carter 13.
When Majerle returns, possibly in a couple weeks, things will look a lot brighter on the bench. Riley doesn't need a loaded second squad to win in the East, but having "Thunder" and Ceballos to give his over-used starting corps some breaks will help. Add a lighter schedule, plus some time for Riley to work his magic at meshing players, and things should be okay in Miami.
Still, it's amazing to see how much Alonzo's departure has affected not only the Heat, but the East as a whole. Compared to the West, last year's East was weak; this year it's just plain awful, and for two reasons: Alonzo's injury, and the partial facelift in Indiana. Both the Heat and Pacers gave the East some respectable championship contenders, but without either team winning through the first month of the season, things have gone terribly awry. The Philadelphia 76ers are actually the best team in the conference, while the Cleveland Cavaliers own one of its best records. I bet you can't even name one player on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Nobody doubted that Zo's departure would have some definite ramifications, and the slow start for Miami, plus the struggling state of the conference as a whole, does not come as a surprise. But the Heat are better than 7-10, and the disappointing start should give way to, at least, another playoff season. And maybe this is all a blessing in disguise, since come season's end the Heat will likely not be a high seed looking to knock out the low-seed New York Knicks in the playoffs.
That's an obstacle, if you recall, that even Zo couldn't overcome.
