With Election Day a mere week away, and polls showing Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush in a dead heat, both candidates are trying to make their final impressions on voters. Gore is up in some polls, Bush leads in others, and political scientists and pundits around the country are scrambling to place their bets.
Among those weighing into the media circus are two of Tufts' very own political science professors - James Glaser and Jeffrey Berry - both of whom are predicting a tight, issue-oriented race to the bitter end.
Glaser was quoted in The Boston Herald last week, and Berry appeared earlier this month in the French news magazine L'Express, saying that an increasing emphasis among voters on past experience will ultimately benefit Gore.
"Gore has finally managed to wake up Democratic voters, who are forgetting their weariness of Clinton and coming back - en masse - into the fold around a new leader," he told L'Express. "The voters are getting to know him better.... They're discovering that he is one of the more qualified candidates for president in America's history."
In a similar interview with the Herald last week, Glaser said that both campaigns are moving toward simplified messages that can be easily delivered to voters.
"These are people who seem to be more fluid in their preferences so education, health care, those are the things they want to hear about," he said. "It doesn't have to be a sophisticated appeal, but it has to resonate with them."
According to the two professors, the key to winning the White House will be dominating the so-called swing states: Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. All four states voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections, but with polls currently showing voters "smack dab in the middle," according to Glaser, the historically unpredictable states could go either way.
One explanation for the "swing" phenomenon in these traditionally liberal states is the candidacy of Green party nominee Ralph Nader, who may take a significant chunk out of the Democratic vote. Although Nader is expected to garner only three percent of votes, the Green party is poised to exert pivotal influence in states where Gore and Bush are head-to-head. Florida, a powerful state with 25 electoral votes, is also in the spotlight.
"The kinds of things that can tip it one way or another [for Gore or Bush] could tip it anywhere else," Glaser said.
The most recurring question of the campaign - Are you better off today than you were four (or eight) years ago? - just does not seem to be striking a chord with voters in this election cycle, Berry said. Over the past eight years under a Democratic president, the US has experienced a time of unprecedented prosperity, and yet the party does not seem to be benefiting from it.
"We don't really understand the impact of affluence," Berry said. "The Democrats are in trouble nationally... Gore's problems are national in scope." The unusually close race has political scientists scampering back to their drawing boards, and reconsidering some long-held theories.
"All of my political science knowledge suggests that this should've been an easy election for Gore; this election is a setback for what political science models predict," Berry said.
The Democrats' troubles are due in part to the large number of swing voters who usually vote Democratic in a national election, but are punishing the party for Clinton's misconduct. However, Glaser predicts that the party will be able to pick up votes if it can mobilize supporters.
"I think a lot of people will come home to Al Gore and the Democrats," Glaser said. "Republicans just have more reliable voters... the biggest task is mobilization for the Democrats."
Both professors agree that the close race will ultimately benefit the voters, who have enjoyed watching the candidates take tougher stances on the issues as they struggle to differentiate themselves. The differences between the candidates' philosophies are particularly evident on many domestic issues, such as health care, Social Security, and taxes.
"This election has been pretty good at defining the differences between Democratic and Republican philosophies," said Berry. Glaser agreed.
"Campaigns are not times to be subtle," he said. "Most voters aren't paying attention to the details."
As campaigning and rhetoric hit a feverish pitch from coast to coast in the coming days, the 2000 presidential election may go down as one of the closest elections in the nation's history.
"It's down to the wire - I've never seen anything like this," Glaser said.
