Two weeks after the Bush administration declared war on terrorism, the fight is beginning to take shape. Troops, aircraft, and ships are being deployed to the Persian Gulf, southwest Asia, and former Soviet Republics while the state department is cobbling together an international anti-terrorism coalition.
Meanwhile, saber rattling by the Bush administration continues and likely will for some time.
The administration must produce at least one story every day demonstrating its progress so it can continue to influence the media, according to political science Professor Jeffrey Berry, an expert on the presidency. "Each day [Bush] tries to communicate some sense of progress."
Berry said building a coalition will prove a critical aspect of the administration's progress. George Bush senior was noted for his coalition building in the Gulf War and his son is now trying to forge similar ties. "He deserves high marks in an absolute sense. Clearly there is an apparent sense of coalition building," Berry said. "To his credit he created a strong foreign policy team."
That team, which includes Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and Secretary of State Colin Powell, has scored several victories, including securing the support of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Yesterday, Saudi Arabia cut ties with Afghanistan, leaving Pakistan as the only country that recognizes the Taliban.
"Pakistan is going to be an important player in the region for a long time," political science Professor Malik Mufti said.
Pakistan's help comes with a price - the administration has lifted economic sanctions on the country and has also promised debt relief. In addition, Pakistan as an ally is threatening to China. While China has a vested interest in rooting out terrorism and Islamic insurgency in its western provinces, which share a 47 mile border with Afghanistan, China also exercises heavy influence in Pakistan.
In the days immediately following the attacks, Pakistani leaders consulted with Beijing before committing to help the US.
"China does not want to see the US increasing its influence in south or central Asia," Fletcher professor Robert Pfaltzgraff Jr. said.
An additional security concern, according to Pfaltzgraff, is the coming power vacuum in Afghanistan. US strikes there are imminent, and the Taliban government will likely be decapitated. The ensuing vacuum may be filled by the Northern Alliance, the group which claimed responsibility for explosions in Kabul immediately following the attacks in New York and Washington.
The Taliban, which controls roughly two thirds of the country, rose to power during a political vacuum in 1996. Many scholars agree that greater regional stability will depend on domestic stability in Afghanistan.
Government officials, however, have a weak understanding of the Afghan political structure and the complexity of the situation, according to Afghanistan expert and Fletcher Professor Andrew Hess. "There should be some kind of proposal for the politics of Afghanistan."
Hess said that any lasting solution in Afghanistan will involve supporting a government chosen by the Afghan people. The US should make contact with Pashtu leaders in the south and others who reject the Taliban. They should explore the possibility of a Loya Jerga meeting, as well, he said.
The Loya Jerga is the confederation of Afghan leaders that represent clans, tribal units, ethnic groups, in addition to the clerical leadership. It is traditionally assembled to advise on important decisions.
"We ought not to follow the Russian model," Hess said. "We ought to make it very clear that it is the Afghans who are going to determine what Afghanistan is going to do," he said, referring to the Soviet support of a 1979 coup. Soviet troops did not leave Afghanistan until 1989, and the USSR and US stopped arming warring groups in 1991.
Hess sees two potential approaches for Afghanistan aside from a Loya Jerga, after initial strikes are made and the Taliban is removed from power.
Afghanistan's ambassador to the United Nations could return to his country and build a coalition government. Or former Afghan king Muhammad Zahir Shah could return. Shah's age and prestige might give him the legitimacy and support necessary to lead a government-building process, according to Hess.
The India Abroad News Service reported last year that Zahir Shah was interested in rebuilding Afghanistan. From Rome, he asked the international community for support.
