Okay, we know. It's been a surprising season. Stop telling us that the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears were not supposed to be hosting playoff games. Get used to it. With the salary structure in the NFL, any team can fall from graces quickly - the Denver Broncos and New York Giants - and any team can fill that void.
So let's stop acting shocked, and face the fact that no matter how bad the Pats and Bears were last year, they are good this year. And both are involved in their biggest games in quite some time. It's been four years since New England fans could wake up in the playoffs, pinch themselves, and discover they weren't dreaming. In Chicago, it's been a 16-year respite between contending teams. I think they're ready.
Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots
At one point in the season, the Raiders were the class of the AFC. It appeared that no one could match up with their balanced and efficient offensive attack, and that their defense was sturdy enough to carry them to the Super Bowl.But then one Monday night, Seattle Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander gouged a 266-yard chink in the Oakland armor. He proved that the Raiders have trouble stopping the run, and from then on, Oakland hasn't looked quite as impressive. They stumbled into the playoffs like a guy leaving a frat party, and most people counted them as losers in last week's matchup with the New York Jets.
People forgot to take into account, though, how difficult it would be for the Jets - who defeated the Raiders the previous week just to make the playoffs - to win two in a row at Oakland. Clearly, New York had thrown just about everything it had at Oakland in the final regular season win, and didn't have time to come up with some new schemes.
That will not be the case this weekend. New England coach Bill Belichek has had two weeks to prepare for the Raiders, which means Jerry Rice will not be able to run around the field like it's recess. Belichek is the best defensive planner in the game, which gives the Pats an advantage heading in.
And don't worry about quarterback Tom Brady seizing up in his first playoff game. Not only is he an extremely calm player who worked in front of 100,000 people during his college days at Michigan, but right now, Oakland's fans are more intimidating than its defense.
Look for Antwain Smith to have a big day. Look for Rich Gannon to have a bad day. And look for New England fans to have a field day in what could be their last day at Foxboro Stadium.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
These teams are extremely similar; it's just that the Steelers have an offense. The Ravens were impressive in their destruction of the Miami Dolphins last week, and Baltimore's defense has given up exactly one touchdown in the past two seasons of playoff football. But while Oakland merely pretended to be the class of the AFC, Pittsburgh is the real deal.Holding the Dolphins to three points, as the Ravens did, is kind of like buying marijuana from an NBA player - it's not too difficult. The Steelers present a much more serious challenge, however. Quarterback Kordell Stewart has finally matured into an effective quarterback, who can scramble for big gains and throw on the run. What separates him from some of the other scrambling quarterbacks in the league, is that he can really throw on the run, you know, to a receiver, not the ground.
He also has a pair of steady receivers to toss to in Heinz Ward and Plaxico Burress. But the key to the offense is the running game, which, aside from the improvisation of Stewart, was anchored by Jerome Bettis. He missed the final part of the year with a hip injury, but is expected to play this week.
For both teams, though, the defense will be the most important part of the game. ESPN's Chris Berman calls the AFC Central - where both teams play - the Blackjack division. Get to 17 and hold. That will be the key to this game. Whichever team can take an early lead will put too much pressure on the opposition's offense to play from behind. The Ravens are especially unsuited to come from behind, which is why the Steelers are the pick here.
Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams
It must be tough for Rams coach Mike Martz to have the league MVP and the guy who should have won it on the same offense. St. Louis has arguably the best offense in the history of the league, and what makes the Rams scary is that their defense was ranked first in the NFC this year.That does not bode well for the Packers, who have neither history's best offense or the league's best defense. What they do have is a guy who probably should have been MVP. Quarterback Brett Favre did not put up the numbers of his counterpart Kurt Warner, but he took a much less talented team to the playoffs.
The Packers defense looked good against San Francisco last week, but that was at home in the freezing cold. This weekend they will be in a dome and in a track meet with the Rams O, and if Green Bay can hold St. Louis under 30 points, it might be a close game.
I don't see that happening. The Rams will run and gun and onside kick with a 20-point lead. Favre will do his best to keep the Pack in the game, but in the end, the Rams offense is too good, and their defense steady enough to prevent a Favre miracle.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
A team of destiny against the best of a bad division. The Bears won on an interception return for a touchdown in overtime this year... twice...in a row. The Eagles beat up on teams that would finish middle of the pack in the NESCAC.Despite the way they got here, these teams are extremely similar. Stingy defenses, steady offenses. But there are two differences, and they will be, well, the difference. But first the similarities.
Chicago has linebacker Brian Urlacher; the Eagles have Jeremiah Trotter - both are two of the best young linebackers in the game. The Eagles D is better against the pass, the Bears stronger against the run. Neither team gives up many points.
The Bears are better running the ball, the Eagles stronger passing. Each team is blessed with young receivers who have won games this year. The Bears have offensive rookie of the year Anthony Thomas in their backfield. The Eagles have Duce Staley, who rushed for 1,000 yards in 1999 before injuries slowed him down until now.
But the differences come at quarterback, where the Eagles Donovan McNabb has the ability to win games, while the Bears' Jim Miller can merely prevent a loss - and experience. All of the Eagles have been here before. Few of the Bears have.
The Bears might be a better overall team, and if these two played ten games without any consequences, I think the Bears would win six or seven of them.
However, history tells us that experience tends to win out over talent. Take the Eagles.
@s:Eagles have experience edge
