This isn't your typical Super Bowl preview. Of course, this isn't your typical Super Bowl matchup, and certainly not a typical NFL season. Normally, we compare the two teams position by position, examining which has the edge at each spot.
That can't happen this year. On paper, the St. Louis Rams have the advantage at virtually every position, except one - backup quarterback. Kurt Warner is the best passer in the game, Marshall Faulk is the best running back (if not player) in the game, the Rams' receiving corps is the deepest and quickest, the offensive line is big and strong, the defense best-rated unit in the NFC, and their special teams is no slouch.
Games aren't played on paper, they are played in domes on green cement, which is why the New England Patriots, despite being two touchdown dogs, have a chance in this game. Despite all the mismatches, the Pats have a few advantages, and I'm not even including having Drew Bledsoe in the bullpen.
For starters, they don't have to defend against Warner's 4,000 passing yards or Faulk's 2,000-yard season. They only have to stop them for 60 minutes, and they have the best defensive mind in the game. Head coach Bill Belichek is to defensive game plans as Deep Blue was to computers. Is he going to shut the Rams offense down? No. It is probably the best the game has ever seen. But if the Patriots can hold the Rams under 25 points - a feat accomplished by only four teams this year, including the Patriots, - New England can win the game.
The second advantage the Pats have is confidence. They have won eight games in a row, their last loss coming at the hands of the Rams. In addition to the win streak, that Nov. 18 contest has to give the Patriots confidence.
The Rams won 24-17, but not without a scare. Ignore the fact that the game was played in New England in the cold and wind while the Super Bowl will be played on turf in a dome. When you're playing the Rams, you take any confidence boost you can get.
As close as the Patriots got in that game, there were a number of things they must improve upon on Sunday. For starters, Antowain Smith rushed for only 36 yards on 15 carries and had a fumble. He will have to be more productive against the Rams this time. It will be difficult for offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss to keep calling Smith's number if St. Louis jumps out to a lead, but New England must have the advantage in time of possession, so a running game, or short passing game is crucial.
That means that Tom Brady, anointed the starting quarterback two days ago despite a high ankle sprain, will have to improve on his numbers from the first St. Louis game. He went 19 for 27 for 185 yards, a touchdown and two picks. His completion percentage was good, as always, but he will need more completions for more yards, and decrease the interceptions.
Defensively, the Patriots intercepted Warner twice and forced him to fumble once, but trading turnovers with the Rams is not enough, the Pats must come out ahead on this statistic. Warner had a monster game against the Patriots, throwing for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. The most important stat, though, was that Warner got sacked only once. The Patriots must get consistent pressure on him. If he can sit back in the pocket, he will chew through the New England secondary.
Finally, the Pats will need some special special teams play. New England scored two special teams touchdowns last week, but the Rams aren't quite the special teams bumblers the Pittsburgh Steelers turned out to be.
The Pats can definitely win this game, but a lot of things must go right. Will they pull it off? I'm not ready to make a prediction quite yet, but I will say that the two best teams in the NFL are in the Super Bowl this year. Okay, now I'm ready. Cinderella makes it to the ball and wins on a Rams missed field goal - 25-24 Patriots.
