Winning by Losing in the NBA

It's about that time of year when NBA teams start gritting their teeth and gearing up for the stretch run to the postseason. What some teams' fans do not realize is that it might be more beneficial for their teams not to make the playoffs. Why? Because the thirteen losers who miss the playoffs are entered into the NBA draft lottery, with a chance to earn the first pick.

For all of you non-basketball geeks, here's how the NBA draft works: the 16 playoff teams fill the 14th through 29th spots in the first round, while the thirteen teams that do not make the playoffs are then run through an extraordinarily complex and unnecessary system. Here they are assigned various number combinations based on record, with the worst team theoretically having the best shot at the first pick. Commissioner David Stern then draws numbered ping pong balls from a jar to determine in which order the teams fill the first through 13th picks. Or, according to conspiracy theorists, the league just gives the top pick to whichever big-market team it wants.

This rumor has been fueled by the fact that the team with the worst record has not gotten the first selection in the draft since 1990. For this reason, an average team can make the playoffs by one game, lose in the first round, and gain the 16th pick, or miss the playoffs by one game, fall to the lottery, get lucky, and get the top pick in the draft.

So not making the playoffs would actually be a good thing for a team like the New York Knicks (25-34), who are not going to advance very far anyway if they do clinch a spot. Remember in 1996, when the San Antonio Spurs lost David Robinson for the season to an injury, and lost enough to make the lottery, where they got a guy named Tim Duncan? Three years later the team won the NBA championship.

Not to say any trophies are going to be headed to the Big Apple anytime soon, but if the team misses the playoffs, gets some luck in the lottery, and Antonio McDyess returns from injury, that would be far more beneficial to New York than a first round playoff exit. Picture a lineup of Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, McDyess, Kurt Thomas, and LeBron James (who they will obviously get because Stern will want the big city market to get the league's most marketable player, right conspiracy theorists?).

Likewise, the Seattle Supersonics (27-31) would do well by not making the playoffs, as they need a high draft pick to improve the team for the future. But thanks to Ray Allen, they find themselves only three and a half games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. This is largely due to the fact that Allen has been playing like his character in He Got Game, Jesus Scuttlesworth. Since last week's trade, Allen has averaged 27.8 points, 7.8 assists and 7.4 rebounds in leading the Sonics to a 4-1 record, including a win over the Lakers in which he dropped a cool 40 on Kobe and company.

What teams DO need to make the playoffs? The Houston Rockets (30-29), for one. Last year, when Steve Francis missed 25 games with migraines, the team stumbled to a 28-54 record, and fell to the lottery, where they wound up with the first pick and grabbed Yao Ming. But the Rockets do not need any more young talent; they already have a solid nucleus in Ming, Francis, Eddie Griffin, and Cuttino Mobley.

What this team needs is to make the playoffs and get some postseason experience. If they lose, fine, they are really just gearing up for 3 years from now, when Shaq has retired, Mobley and Francis have finally learned to pass to Yao, and the Houston dynasty can begin. And if they pull off an upset or two in this year's playoffs, that is fine too.

Another team that should have some lofty playoff expectations is the Milwaukee Bucks (29-30), who currently hold a tiebreaker over the Washington Wizards for the last spot in the East. They have plenty of young talent in Desmond Mason, Michael Redd, and Tim Thomas, and battle-tested warriors in Gary Payton, Sam Cassell, and Toni Kukoc (never thought I would be calling him a warrior).

Payton wants a ring badly, and doing some serious playoff damage this season may be the only way if the Bucks can convince him to resign with the team this off-season. If Milwaukee falters and ends up in lottery-city, don't expect the Glove to stick around for the long haul in a rebuilding project _ he's outta there.