Buy low, sell high to excel in fantasy

So we're into week three of the season, and everyone in your fantasy league is scrambling to trade. Maybe they've realized that they own too many starters and have a weakness at first base. Maybe their closers aren't closing, and they've panicked and picked up the flavor of the week (who currently seems to be Mike MacDougal or, even worse, Joe Borowski).

Some fantasy owners may believe that the events of the first three weeks will determine the next five months; they're ready to bail on Torii Hunter because last year must have been a fluke, and Austin Kearns will now be the cornerstone of their outfield. We're all looking for a little excitement, and even the slow learners in your league have figured things out by now. So, the trade proposals keep coming in. How do you make light of all this?

The goal for any trade is to buy low, sell high. Check the values of where your players stand right now, compare that to their pre-season speculated value, and then gauge how to get your team going. You can go to ESPN.com fantasy pages and look at the average draft position of a player compared to his current fantasy rating, or in Yahoo leagues, the Sporting News gives a fluctuating offensive rank of the supposed overall value of a player.

Whatever format you use, you know that Vernon Wells is not going to remain a top five fantasy hitter, and you know that Randy Johnson will not finish the season with a plus 4.00 ERA. But, you might want to convince someone that it's true.

In fantasy, especially at the beginning of the season when team owners are looking to jump off to a fast start, it's easy to get frustrated with an early slump. A lot of good pitchers have gotten hit hard lately, so look for their team owners to be offering them up.

Some starters whose values are looking unnaturally low right now are: Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Mark Mulder, Freddy Garcia, Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Odalis Perez, Wade Miller, A.J. Burnett, C.C. Sabathia, and, of course, Greg Maddux.

For batters, look out for slumpers: Hunter, Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, Sammy Sosa, Lance Berkman, Mike Piazza, Chipper Jones, Mike Sweeney, Eric Chavez, Ryan Klesko and Mike Cameron.

You should want any of these players, and, with the exception of a few, they can all be had. Owners will be fed up with these guys and have them on the table. Take advantage.

On the other hand, taking a look at the top of the 5 x 5 (the traditional fantasy categories) player rater, Jose Cruz Jr. is the fourth best fantasy player right now. While Cruz, Jr. has shown decent potential, he hasn't been able to match up good plate discipline with his isolated power over the past few seasons.

He likely will not end up a top 50 fantasy player, but some might argue that a little good coaching could turn him into a superstar. If you own Cruz Jr., convince someone that Felipe Alou is the answer, and trade him for one of the players who's underperforming right now -- like say, Maddux.

Other batters who are currently benefiting from an upside are Austin Kearns, Carlos Delgado, Preston Wilson, Vernon Wells, Edgar Renteria, Kevin Millar, Mike Lowell, Tim Salmon, and Jason Kendall.

These players could all be decent, but for most of them, their ceiling has already been determined. We all know that Renteria will be a solid average/runs/stolen bases guy, but he's not going to be hitting 30 homers.

Mike Lowell, also, has been around long enough for us to know that he's not breaking out. Wells and Kearns are a bit younger, so their ceilings are a bit higher and they could end up being strong forces, but they could also be mediocre.

There are some hot, young pitchers out there, as well, but it'll be a little bit harder to get anything good for them. Pitchers playing above their average level right now are Runelvys Hernandez, Vincent Padilla, Kris Benson, Brian Lawrence, David Wells, Randy Wolff, and Jeff Suppan.

My advice is always to try to trade hot players high for supposed "sure things" rather than waiting to see if they last. Buy low, sell high. It'll take some negotiating skills, but I believe in you.

Last year, after Mike Lowell got off to a hot start, I traded him for a slumping Troy Glaus, which eventually turned into a huge gain. Another early deal in my 2002 league was Trot Nixon for Roy Halladay. It's not the early season performances that will have a big impact on your team, but the early season trades that could make or break you. So be smart and recognize potential.