Dean's false lead

I hate to pen a third consecutive column that centers on Howard Dean, but I'm going to anyway because the media seems to have unfairly crowned him the Democratic nominee already. But before I get started on this again, I want to put a disclaimer out there this time: I wasn't a Dean basher from day one. I'm what you could call a born-again Dean basher.

In fact, I enthusiastically embraced Dean at first. When I first saw him on "Meet the Press" in the summer of 2002 and then on "Road to the White House" on C-Span, I really thought he was something. I even went so far as to contact his finance team and his then tiny organizational team in Burlington -- I wanted to get on his bandwagon before it left the station.

But the more that I've followed him and the more that I've seen him on the campaign trail, the more that I've soured on Howard Dean. I just dislike the man personally. It's a personality issue more than anything else. My experience here seems to be the opposite of that of most other Dean supporters out there. Most, it seems, didn't have a clue who the Governor of Vermont was at this time last year but have grown to love him since.

But now it's getting perilously close to the primaries and if it takes awhile for others to sour on Dean like it did for me, then his latest surge of support might disappear after he locks up the nomination. And that would be tragic. But, thankfully, Dean hasn't locked up the nomination like the media -- and Dean himself -- seem to think he has.

First, there's Iowa. With Clark and Lieberman out of the running there, many argue that anyone's victory there will automatically be cheapened with two of the heavy-hitters missing. And besides, the last poll to come out of Iowa last week shows Gephardt extending his lead over Dean; it's now 27 to 20. Sure, Dean landed two high-profile union endorsements last week, but they still pale in comparison to the litany of endorsements that Gephardt has received. And while Dean's endorsements came from large national unions, Gephardt has massive support with local unions, such as Iowa's United Auto Workers. That is likely to help more in terms of "putting feet on the ground" to actually turn out the vote on caucus day. Granted, an Iowa victory for Dean would likely propel him to victory in New Hampshire and secure the nomination, but an Iowa victory is far from assured.

Second is the mother of all primaries: New Hampshire. And it's there that I'd suggest that Dean watch his back. I won't go so far as to predict it, but a late-hour New Hampshire surprise seems to be the norm rather than the exception. In 1984, Sen. Gary Hart closed a gap of some 40 points in most polls a week before the primary to trounce Walter Mondale on election day. Hart won big. In 1992, while Bill Clinton didn't win New Hampshire, the voters there came out in droves for him when he was expected to have an abysmal showing. His unexpected strong showing there propelled him to victories elsewhere, and of course, to the nomination. Then in 2000, a close race that seemed to be favoring Gov. Bush resulted in a McCain landslide of nearly 20 points. Nothing is certain in New Hampshire. Part of the reason for this is undoubtedly the large contingent of independent voters in New Hampshire who can swing to either party. You shouldn't underestimate their power to pull a rabbit out of a hat once again.

Just who might benefit from a New Hampshire surprise this time around? I'd look for Gephardt (who might just ride a wave from a victory in Iowa to an unexpected victory in New Hampshire), Edwards (the charming southerner who, like Clinton, might not catch fire until the 11th hour), or Clark (the un-Dean outsider with a weighty resume who seems best suited to attracting independents) to ride a late surge to victory. And if Iowa stays close and Dean ends up spending too much time and money there, he might end up neglecting New Hampshire, having too much false confidence in his current lead in the Granite State. If he does that, watch out for a belated Christmas gift for another Democrat.

The historic second-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 3 in South Carolina would be the next stop. But there, Clark and Edwards are battling it out. Even if Dean were to hold on in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina could easily, or are even likely to, go to other Democrats.

Dean could win it all. But so could Gephardt, Clark, or Edwards. Lieberman might even have a shot, Kerry less of one, and then you're left with those who never had a realistic chance: Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton. But no one has this one in the bag.

At an event that I attended with Sen. Gary Hart last spring, I asked the Senator what he thought of Howard Dean's insurgent candidacy and he responded calmly: "I'm not concerned. I've done this before and what you have to realize is that this is a marathon, it's not a sprint. And I know how to finish a marathon." Now granted Hart ended up not running, but one thing didn't change: Dean is still sprinting and I'd watch out for a tortoise in the rearview. Sprinters always tire.



Adam Schultz is a senior majoring in political science. He can be reached at schultz@tuftsdaily.com.