Picture starting to clear as season progresses

The NBA season is now almost one fourth complete. That sounds weird seeing as how the playoffs still find a way to end in late June, but it's true. The first month of regular season action is always a glass full of muddy water, as pretenders pretend, contenders take a while to get on track, and no-name players try to impersonate MJ.

However, starting now, the muddy water gives way to a clearer picture of the NBA, version 2003-2004.

The Orlando Magic, for one, opened the season with shaky play. They escaped the New York Knicks in overtime (at this point, beating the Knicks in overtime is pretty much a loss to any other team), and quickly dropped the next several games.

Everyone assumed it was just a fluke at first -- after they blew a 3-1 first round series lead in last year's playoffs Orlando would surely come back hungry this year, right?

Plus, the Magic returned reigning Coach of the Year Doc Rivers and superstar Tracy McGrady, and also added veteran Juwan Howard and rookie Reece Gaines.

Orlando was supposed to be good -- it couldn't really be that bad, could it?

Unfortunately for the Magic, they are that bad. The losing streak is still alive, and at 1-15, it's pretty safe to say Orlando won't be around to blow a first round playoff series this year.

And as now former coach Rivers found out, when you're bad in the NBA, when you're supposed to be good, you get fired. For Doc, T-Mac, and the Magic, everything that could go wrong has this season.

The team began the year without forward Pat Garrity and guard Gordon Giricek. Then T-Mac admitted early in the season that zone defenses gave him and his teammates trouble. Not surprisingly, T-Mac and the Magic have faced a steady diet of zone defenses ever since.

But instead of gritting his teeth and battling through like a superstar leader, T-Mac has whined and complained, even mentioning the R-word, "retirement". Puh-lease. T-Mac is 24, and he's one of the two best guards in the league. He's not going anywhere for awhile.

Instead of talking about quitting, McGrady should be focusing on getting his mojo back, and that starts with clutch play at the end of the game. In two close losses this week, the final shot for Orlando was taken not by McGrady, but by Tyronne Lue, a name you probably won't be seeing on this year's all-star ballot.

The Magic are better than they have been, and they will play better in the future, but it probably won't help them this year.

On the flip side of the coin, guru Rick Carlisle has shown just how much better he is than ex-coach Isiah Thomas in leading the 14-2 Indiana Pacers to the best record in the league.

Carlisle has managed to keep time bomb Ron Artest from going off while sitting Jamaal Tinsley in favor of Kenny Anderson at the point. This move is reminiscent of the move that the Sacramento Kings made several years ago when they traded Jason Williams for Mike Bibby. The Kings were then on the verge of breaking into the big-time and the calm and collected Bibby was what they needed, not the wild risk taker Williams.

While the Pacers are running the fast break less than last year, they run better as a team with Anderson, at least for now. Tinsley still has a fine career ahead of him, as Williams proved to have, it just might come with a different team.

Another team that looks to be much improved is the New Orleans Hornets. Maybe they just needed a year in N'awlins to get the, uhh, fun, under their belts, but more likely the difference is in the weight Baron Davis lost from under his belt. A considerably slimmed down Davis has the Hornets running and gunning to an 11-6 record, and that's without the injured Jamal Mashburn.

However, there are two sour thoughts for the Hornets to toss around in their head. One, they might actually be a better team without Mashburn, who prefers the slower post up game. And two, they're moving to the Western Conference next year, so they should enjoy their success while it lasts.

Out west, the biggest surprise has been the Utah Jazz, whom many expected to falter without the services of John Stockton and Karl "shopping for a ring" Malone. But with Jerry Sloan still on the pine, a host of players have stepped up to fill in the gap and the 9-6 Jazz have just one loss at home this year. It's doubtful the Jazz can keep up the pace and make the playoffs, but they're certainly vastly better than anyone imagined they would be.

Ugly Stat of the Year: The Toronto Raptors have yet to break 90 points in a non-overtime game yet this year. That could change soon, however, as the Raptors just traded for Jalen Rose, Donyell Marshall, and Lonnie Baxter.